Football · Bulgaria First League · 18/07, 20:15
Prediction: Ludogorets Razgrad vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.26Total
Ludogorets Razgrad1.6
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.66
1X2
Ludogorets Razgrad
Draw
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Ludogorets Razgrad
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ludogorets Razgrad
2–3–1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ludogorets Razgrad 1536 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1535
| Ludogorets Razgrad | Draw | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 27% | 14% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Ludogorets Razgrad: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ludogorets Razgrad | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.4 | 0.7 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ludogorets Razgrad 2–3–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/26 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 02/03/26 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 14/09/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 30/03/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 06/10/24 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 22/05/24 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arda Kardzhali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dunav Ruse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Septemvri Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Spartak Varna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cherno More Varna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Slavia Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Botev Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Botev Vratsa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ludogorets Razgrad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Teuta Durres Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/07 | Septemvri Sofia Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Botosani Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 26/06 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Club Friendly List |
5-2 | 7-4 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 13/05 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 8 | L |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Rilski Sportist Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Arda Kardzhali Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 16/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 08/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 30/04 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ludogorets Razgrad vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ludogorets Razgrad win (60%). Probabilities: Ludogorets Razgrad 60%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 15%.
How many goals are expected in Ludogorets Razgrad vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model expects 2.26 goals (Ludogorets Razgrad 1.6 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.66), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ludogorets Razgrad vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.