Football · Finland Kolmonen · 06/08, 17:45

Prediction: MiPK vs LAUTP

Team pages: MiPK · LAUTP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.57Total

MiPK3.21

LAUTP1.36

1X2

73% 14% 13%

MiPK Draw LAUTP

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

MiPK 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWLWW

LAUTP 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLWLWL

Head-to-head

MiPK 2–2–0 LAUTP (4 last)

LAUTP2-2MiPK
LAUTP0-4MiPK
MiPK5-0LAUTP
LAUTP3-3MiPK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MiPK 1561 · LAUTP 1457

	MiPK	Draw	LAUTP
Our model	73%	15%	12%
Market	73%	14%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 4.57 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MiPK (rating 1561 vs 1457).
H2H favours MiPK: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MiPK	LAUTP
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.4	1.7 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/29/29%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	2.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)2.00

2 (+2.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.90

Under 4.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:43 +4’	1.22	6.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MiPK 2–2–0 LAUTP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	LAUTP	2-2 HT 0-0	MiPK
25/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	LAUTP	0-4 HT 0-2	MiPK
25/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	MiPK	5-0 HT 1-0	LAUTP
31/05/24 Finland Kolmonen	LAUTP	3-3 HT 0-1	MiPK

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IPS Edustus	13	9	3	1	30	17	30
2	Kultsu FC	13	9	2	2	37	13	29
3	PeKa	13	9	2	2	41	18	29
4	MiPK	13	8	2	3	38	18	26
5	HaPK	13	8	1	4	31	22	25
6	MP II	13	6	0	7	28	25	18
7	LAUTP	13	5	2	6	27	29	17
8	KoPa	13	5	2	6	18	26	17
9	KJP	13	5	1	7	21	19	16
10	Edustus STPS	13	2	2	9	14	29	8
11	Kumu	13	2	2	9	16	46	8
12	LAUTP II	13	0	1	12	4	43	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MiPK	LAUTP
LAUTP II	7-0 W	1-0 W
Kumu	5-1 W	6-2 W
Kultsu FC	2-3 L	0-3 L
KoPa	4-0 W	0-2 L
KJP	3-1 W	2-2 D
MP II	2-1 W	2-3 L
IPS Edustus	2-3 L	2-6 L
HaPK	3-4 L	2-5 L
PeKa	2-1 W	1-3 L
Edustus STPS	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: MiPK (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MiPK

WWLLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	3-0	7-0	10	1	W
25/07	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
02/07	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
27/06	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	5	5	W
17/06	KJP Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
12/06	MP II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
05/06	IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-3	7	5	L
28/05	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	0-4	3-4	5	5	L
22/05	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W

LAUTP

DWLLLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	MP II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-3	5	5	L
25/07	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
01/07	IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen	–	2-6	–	–	L
24/06	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	3-1	6-2	6	5	W
17/06	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-5	1	6	L
10/06	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
04/06	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	2	5	L
29/05	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	7	6	L
20/05	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
14/05	KJP Finland Kolmonen	2-2	2-2	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MiPK vs LAUTP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MiPK win (73%). Probabilities: MiPK 73%, draw 14%, LAUTP 13%.

How many goals are expected in MiPK vs LAUTP?

The model expects 4.57 goals (MiPK 3.21 · LAUTP 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in MiPK vs LAUTP?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.