Prediction: Lazio vs AC Milan
- Lazio1-0AC Milan
- Lazio1-0AC Milan
- AC Milan1-0Lazio
- AC Milan1-2Lazio
- Lazio2-2AC Milan
- Lazio0-1AC Milan
| Lazio | Draw | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Market | 30% | 30% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lazio (rating 1586 vs 1500).
- H2H favours Lazio: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lazio | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.3 | 0.9 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lazio 3–1–2 AC Milan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Italy Serie A | Lazio | 1-0 HT 1-0 | AC Milan |
| 04/12/25 Coppa Italia | Lazio | 1-0 HT 0-0 | AC Milan |
| 29/11/25 Italy Serie A | AC Milan | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lazio |
| 02/03/25 Italy Serie A | AC Milan | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Lazio |
| 31/08/24 Italy Serie A | Lazio | 2-2 HT 0-1 | AC Milan |
| 01/03/24 Italy Serie A | Lazio | 0-1 HT 0-0 | AC Milan |
Standings · Italy Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Inter Milan | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Frosinone | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Atalanta | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Udinese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Torino | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Lecce | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Parma | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Monza | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | Bologna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 | Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 | Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lazio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Udinese | 3-3 D | 0-3 L |
| Napoli | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lazio (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lazio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 24/08 | Bologna Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Pisa Italy Serie A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Roma Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Inter Milan Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Cremonese Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Udinese Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Napoli Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 13/04 | Fiorentina Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Parma Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
AC Milan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Venezia Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Torino Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Cagliari Italy Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Atalanta Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Sassuolo Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Verona Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Udinese Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/04 | Napoli Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lazio vs AC Milan?
According to our model, the most likely result is an AC Milan win (39%). Probabilities: Lazio 30%, draw 31%, AC Milan 39%.
How many goals are expected in Lazio vs AC Milan?
The model expects 2.24 goals (Lazio 1.03 · AC Milan 1.21), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs AC Milan?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.