Prediction: Inter Milan vs Fiorentina
Team pages: Inter Milan · Fiorentina
- Fiorentina1-1Inter Milan
- Inter Milan3-0Fiorentina
- Inter Milan2-1Fiorentina
- Fiorentina3-0Inter Milan
- Fiorentina0-1Inter Milan
- Inter Milan4-0Fiorentina
| Inter Milan | Draw | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 18% | 11% |
| Market | 71% | 18% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Inter Milan (rating 1599 vs 1464).
- H2H favours Inter Milan: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Inter Milan | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.5 | 1.6 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Inter Milan 4–1–1 Fiorentina
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Italy Serie A | Fiorentina | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Inter Milan |
| 29/10/25 Italy Serie A | Inter Milan | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Fiorentina |
| 10/02/25 Italy Serie A | Inter Milan | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Fiorentina |
| 06/02/25 Italy Serie A | Fiorentina | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Inter Milan |
| 28/01/24 Italy Serie A | Fiorentina | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Inter Milan |
| 03/09/23 Italy Serie A | Inter Milan | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Fiorentina |
Standings · Italy Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milan | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Como | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 13 |
| 7 | Cagliari | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 8 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 10 | Torino | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 8 |
| 14 | Monza | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 7 |
| 15 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 3 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Inter Milan | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Roma | 2-2 D | 0-4 L |
| Napoli | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Inter Milan (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Inter Milan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Bologna Italy Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | Parma Italy Serie A |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 19/09 | Roma Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 14/09 | Udinese Italy Serie A |
2-2 | 5-3 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Napoli Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 3-2 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Cagliari Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Monza Italy Serie A |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Bologna Italy Serie A |
1-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Verona Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 09/05 | Lazio Italy Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
Fiorentina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Como Italy Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 20/09 | Napoli Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/09 | Venezia Italy Serie A |
2-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Torino Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 29/08 | Frosinone Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 24/08 | Roma Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Atalanta Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Inter Milan vs Fiorentina?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Inter Milan win (71%). Probabilities: Inter Milan 71%, draw 18%, Fiorentina 11%.
How many goals are expected in Inter Milan vs Fiorentina?
The model expects 3.49 goals (Inter Milan 2.56 · Fiorentina 0.93), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Inter Milan vs Fiorentina?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.