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Football · Italy Serie A · 01/11, 18:00

Prediction: Lecce vs Genoa

Team pages: Lecce · Genoa

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
Lecce1.12
Genoa1.23
1X2
32% 30% 37%
Lecce Draw Genoa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Lecce 5-0-5 (W-D-L)
WWWLLWLLWL
Genoa 2-1-7 (W-D-L)
LLLLLDLWLW
Head-to-head
Lecce 2–2–2 Genoa (6 last)
  • Lecce1-0Genoa
  • Genoa0-0Lecce
  • Genoa2-1Lecce
  • Lecce0-0Genoa
  • Genoa2-1Lecce
  • Lecce1-0Genoa
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lecce 1487 · Genoa 1476
LecceDrawGenoa
Our model32%31%37%
Market32%30%37%
Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

LecceGenoa
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 1.60.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)0.8 / 10.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/10/50%20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)1.9 / 4.51.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)2.7 / 0.13.8 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lecce 2–2–2 Genoa

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DateHomeScoreAway
24/05/26
Italy Serie A
Lecce1-0
HT 1-0
Genoa
23/08/25
Italy Serie A
Genoa0-0
HT 0-0
Lecce
14/03/25
Italy Serie A
Genoa2-1
HT 2-0
Lecce
05/01/25
Italy Serie A
Lecce0-0
HT 0-0
Genoa
28/01/24
Italy Serie A
Genoa2-1
HT 0-1
Lecce
22/09/23
Italy Serie A
Lecce1-0
HT 0-0
Genoa

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Inter Milan 9810 251025
2 Lazio 9810 22725
3 Roma 9630 23821
4 Como 9621 17820
5 AC Milan 9531 181118
6 Napoli 9423 171114
7 Frosinone 8422 171314
8 Juventus 9423 111014
9 Torino 9414 141413
10 Cagliari 9414 81313
11 Bologna 9324 121211
12 Atalanta 8314 141510
13 Genoa 9315 81310
14 Lecce 8305 9149
15 Sassuolo 9225 14228
16 Monza 9216 16227
17 Udinese 9126 9185
18 Parma 9126 5155
19 Fiorentina 8116 9194
20 Venezia 9108 6193

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentLecceGenoa
AC Milan 0-3 L 1-2 L
Roma 0-4 L 0-2 L
Venezia 2-0 W 1-0 W
Record vs common 1 W 0 D 2 L 1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Genoa (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lecce

WWWLLWLLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
25/10 Juventus
Italy Serie A
 0-2 0-2 52 L
18/10 Udinese
Italy Serie A
 2-0 3-0 41 W
11/10 Bologna
Italy Serie A
 0-1 1-2 105 L
20/09 AC Milan
Italy Serie A
 0-1 0-3 31 L
13/09 Monza
Italy Serie A
 3-1 3-2 42 W
07/09 Cagliari
Italy Serie A
 0-1 0-1 54 L
31/08 Roma
Italy Serie A
 0-3 0-4 22 L
23/08 Venezia
Italy Serie A
 0-0 2-0 34 W
24/05 Genoa
Italy Serie A
 1-0 1-0 12 W
17/05 Sassuolo
Italy Serie A
 2-1 3-2 85 W

Genoa

LLLLLDLWLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
25/10 Venezia
Italy Serie A
 1-0 1-0 21 W
17/10 Roma
Italy Serie A
 0-0 0-2 35 L
10/10 Fiorentina
Italy Serie A
 2-0 2-1 38 W
20/09 Parma
Italy Serie A
 0-1 1-2 56 L
12/09 Frosinone
Italy Serie A
 0-1 1-1 85 D
04/09 Como
Italy Serie A
 1-3 1-4 53 L
30/08 Lazio
Italy Serie A
 0-1 0-1 23 L
22/08 Napoli
Italy Serie A
 0-0 0-2 51 L
24/05 Lecce
Italy Serie A
 0-1 0-1 62 L
17/05 AC Milan
Italy Serie A
 0-0 1-2 45 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lecce vs Genoa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Genoa win (37%). Probabilities: Lecce 32%, draw 30%, Genoa 37%.

How many goals are expected in Lecce vs Genoa?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Lecce 1.12 · Genoa 1.23), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Lecce vs Genoa?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.