Football · Italy Serie A · 31/10, 20:45

Prediction: AC Milan vs Inter Milan

Team pages: AC Milan · Inter Milan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

AC Milan1.3

Inter Milan1.77

1X2

27% 26% 47%

AC Milan Draw Inter Milan

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Milan 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWDWWL

Inter Milan 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDWWWW

Head-to-head

AC Milan 3–3–0 Inter Milan (6 last)

AC Milan1-1Inter Milan
AC Milan1-0Inter Milan
Inter Milan0-1AC Milan
Inter Milan0-3AC Milan
AC Milan1-1Inter Milan
AC Milan1-1Inter Milan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Milan 1551 · Inter Milan 1571

	AC Milan	Draw	Inter Milan
Our model	27%	25%	47%
Market	27%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AC Milan: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Milan	Inter Milan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	2.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	2.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.70

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.05

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.66 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.77
2	2.25 → 2.00▼	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 5.6% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:52 +1’	2.90	3.60	2.25
08:09 +3’	3.20▲	3.60	2.10▼
22:41 +2’	3.50▲	3.70▲	2.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:00 +17’	3.12	3.57	2.17
22:27 +50’	3.15▲	3.61▲	2.19▲
06:19 +52’	3.34▲	3.69▲	2.08▼
10:10 +6’	3.45▲	3.71▲	2.03▼
02:17 +1’	3.45	3.71	2.04▲
22:38 +4’	3.66▲	3.77▲	1.96▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Milan 3–3–0 Inter Milan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/08/26 Elite Club Friendlies	AC Milan	1-1 HT 0-0	Inter Milan
08/03/26 Italy Serie A	AC Milan	1-0 HT 1-0	Inter Milan
23/11/25 Italy Serie A	Inter Milan	0-1 HT 0-0	AC Milan
23/04/25 Coppa Italia	Inter Milan	0-3 HT 0-1	AC Milan
02/04/25 Coppa Italia	AC Milan	1-1 HT 0-0	Inter Milan
02/02/25 Italy Serie A	AC Milan	1-1 HT 1-0	Inter Milan

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter Milan	9	8	1	0	25	10	25
2	Lazio	9	8	1	0	22	7	25
3	Roma	9	6	3	0	23	8	21
4	Como	9	6	2	1	17	8	20
5	AC Milan	9	5	3	1	18	11	18
6	Napoli	9	4	2	3	17	11	14
7	Frosinone	8	4	2	2	17	13	14
8	Juventus	9	4	2	3	11	10	14
9	Torino	9	4	1	4	14	14	13
10	Cagliari	9	4	1	4	8	13	13
11	Bologna	9	3	2	4	12	12	11
12	Atalanta	8	3	1	4	14	15	10
13	Genoa	9	3	1	5	8	13	10
14	Lecce	8	3	0	5	9	14	9
15	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	14	22	8
16	Monza	9	2	1	6	16	22	7
17	Udinese	9	1	2	6	9	18	5
18	Parma	9	1	2	6	5	15	5
19	Fiorentina	8	1	1	6	9	19	4
20	Venezia	9	1	0	8	6	19	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Milan	Inter Milan
Bologna	2-4 L	3-1 W
Udinese	2-0 W	5-3 W
Venezia	2-0 W	2-0 W
Cagliari	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Inter Milan (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Milan

LWWDDWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Bologna Italy Serie A	2-1	2-4	2	2	L
25/10	Udinese Italy Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
18/10	Atalanta Italy Serie A	2-0	3-2	2	3	W
11/10	Sassuolo Italy Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
20/09	Lecce Italy Serie A	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
12/09	Lazio Italy Serie A	0-2	2-2	5	5	D
06/09	Juventus Italy Serie A	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
28/08	Venezia Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
23/08	Torino Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
24/05	Cagliari Italy Serie A	1-1	1-2	5	4	L

Inter Milan

DWWWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Venezia Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
25/10	Fiorentina Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
17/10	Bologna Italy Serie A	1-1	3-1	6	7	W
10/10	Parma Italy Serie A	3-0	3-0	3	0	W
19/09	Roma Italy Serie A	0-2	2-2	2	6	D
14/09	Udinese Italy Serie A	2-2	5-3	10	2	W
05/09	Napoli Italy Serie A	0-0	3-2	10	3	W
30/08	Cagliari Italy Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
22/08	Monza Italy Serie A	1-1	4-1	3	4	W
23/05	Bologna Italy Serie A	1-2	3-3	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Milan vs Inter Milan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Inter Milan win (47%). Probabilities: AC Milan 27%, draw 26%, Inter Milan 47%.

How many goals are expected in AC Milan vs Inter Milan?

The model expects 3.06 goals (AC Milan 1.3 · Inter Milan 1.77), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Inter Milan?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.