Football · Italy Serie A · 02/11, 20:45
Prediction: Atalanta vs Parma
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Atalanta1.92
Parma0.79
1X2
Atalanta
Draw
Parma
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Atalanta
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Parma
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atalanta
3–1–2
Parma
(6 last)
- Atalanta4-0Parma
- Parma1-1Atalanta
- Atalanta2-3Parma
- Parma1-3Atalanta
- Parma4-1Atalanta
- Parma2-5Atalanta
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atalanta 1509 · Parma 1415
| Atalanta | Draw | Parma | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | 64% | 22% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atalanta (rating 1509 vs 1415).
- H2H favours Atalanta: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atalanta | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.7 | 0.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.7 | 1.4 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atalanta 3–1–2 Parma
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/26 Italy Serie A | Atalanta | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Parma |
| 30/08/25 Italy Serie A | Parma | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Atalanta |
| 25/05/25 Italy Serie A | Atalanta | 2-3 HT 2-0 | Parma |
| 23/11/24 Italy Serie A | Parma | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Atalanta |
| 04/08/24 Elite Club Friendlies | Parma | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Atalanta |
| 09/05/21 Italy Serie A | Parma | 2-5 HT 0-1 | Atalanta |
Standings · Italy Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milan | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Lazio | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | Roma | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Como | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 11 | 18 |
| 6 | Napoli | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 14 |
| 7 | Frosinone | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 14 |
| 8 | Juventus | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 14 |
| 9 | Torino | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| 10 | Cagliari | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 13 |
| 11 | Bologna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| 13 | Genoa | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 10 |
| 14 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 9 |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 22 | 8 |
| 16 | Monza | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 7 |
| 17 | Udinese | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 5 |
| 18 | Parma | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 5 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atalanta | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Cagliari | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Sassuolo | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atalanta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Frosinone Italy Serie A |
3-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 18/10 | AC Milan Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 12/10 | Venezia Italy Serie A |
3-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Cagliari Italy Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 05/09 | Roma Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 31/08 | Bologna Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | Sassuolo Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | Fiorentina Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Bologna Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
Parma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Lazio Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/10 | Torino Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Inter Milan Italy Serie A |
0-3 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 20/09 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 14/09 | Como Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | Monza Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Cagliari Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Sassuolo Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Como Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atalanta vs Parma?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atalanta win (63%). Probabilities: Atalanta 63%, draw 23%, Parma 14%.
How many goals are expected in Atalanta vs Parma?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Atalanta 1.92 · Parma 0.79), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Parma?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.