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Football · Italy Serie A · 24/10, 20:45

Prediction: Lazio vs Parma

Team pages: Lazio · Parma

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Lazio1.87
Parma0.72
1X2
64% 23% 13%
Lazio Draw Parma
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Lazio 7-1-2 (W-D-L)
WLLWWWWDWW
Parma 2-1-7 (W-D-L)
LLLWLLDLWL
Head-to-head
Lazio 3–2–1 Parma (6 last)
  • Lazio1-1Parma
  • Parma0-1Lazio
  • Lazio2-2Parma
  • Parma3-1Lazio
  • Lazio1-0Parma
  • Lazio2-1Parma
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lazio 1614 · Parma 1416
LazioDrawParma
Our model64%24%13%
Market64%22%13%
Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lazio (rating 1614 vs 1416).
  • H2H favours Lazio: 3-2-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

LazioParma
Goals for / against (FT)1.5 / 1.10.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)0.7 / 0.50.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/30/30%10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)1.7 / 4.51.4 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.6 / 0.42.8 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lazio 3–2–1 Parma

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DateHomeScoreAway
04/04/26
Italy Serie A
Lazio1-1
HT 0-1
Parma
13/12/25
Italy Serie A
Parma0-1
HT 0-0
Lazio
28/04/25
Italy Serie A
Lazio2-2
HT 0-1
Parma
01/12/24
Italy Serie A
Parma3-1
HT 1-0
Lazio
12/05/21
Italy Serie A
Lazio1-0
HT 0-0
Parma
21/01/21
Coppa Italia
Lazio2-1
HT 1-0
Parma

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Inter Milan 7610 21919
2 Roma 7520 16317
3 Lazio 6510 11416
4 Como 7421 12714
5 Frosinone 7412 13913
6 Cagliari 6411 6313
7 AC Milan 6330 11512
8 Juventus 6321 9511
9 Napoli 7313 10710
10 Atalanta 6303 889
11 Lecce 7304 9129
12 Sassuolo 7223 12148
13 Torino 6213 797
14 Bologna 7124 6105
15 Monza 6114 9154
16 Parma 6114 4104
17 Udinese 7115 9164
18 Genoa 7115 5134
19 Fiorentina 7115 8174
20 Venezia 7106 6163

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentLazioParma
Monza 3-1 W 1-1 D
Genoa 1-0 W 2-1 W
Roma 0-2 L 2-3 L
Inter Milan 0-3 L 0-3 L
Record vs common 2 W 0 D 2 L 1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lazio

WLLWWWWDWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
11/10 Monza
Italy Serie A
 2-0 3-1 75 W
19/09 Venezia
Italy Serie A
 0-0 2-0 26 W
12/09 AC Milan
Italy Serie A
 2-0 2-2 25 D
07/09 Udinese
Italy Serie A
 0-0 2-1 86 W
30/08 Genoa
Italy Serie A
 1-0 1-0 43 W
24/08 Bologna
Italy Serie A
 0-0 1-0 68 W
23/05 Pisa
Italy Serie A
 2-1 2-1 53 W
17/05 Roma
Italy Serie A
 0-1 0-2 37 L
09/05 Inter Milan
Italy Serie A
 0-2 0-3 54 L
04/05 Cremonese
Italy Serie A
 0-1 2-1 33 W

Parma

LLLWLLDLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
10/10 Inter Milan
Italy Serie A
 0-3 0-3 10 L
20/09 Genoa
Italy Serie A
 1-0 2-1 26 W
14/09 Como
Italy Serie A
 0-1 1-2 41 L
06/09 Monza
Italy Serie A
 0-1 1-1 64 D
29/08 Juventus
Italy Serie A
 0-0 0-2 25 L
22/08 Cagliari
Italy Serie A
 0-0 0-1 32 L
24/05 Sassuolo
Italy Serie A
 0-0 1-0 14 W
17/05 Como
Italy Serie A
 0-0 0-1 22 L
10/05 Roma
Italy Serie A
 0-1 2-3 34 L
03/05 Inter Milan
Italy Serie A
 0-1 0-2 31 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lazio vs Parma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lazio win (64%). Probabilities: Lazio 64%, draw 23%, Parma 13%.

How many goals are expected in Lazio vs Parma?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Lazio 1.87 · Parma 0.72), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lazio vs Parma?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.