Football · Italy Serie A · 24/10, 18:00

Prediction: Napoli vs Roma

Team pages: Napoli · Roma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Napoli1.26

Roma1.49

1X2

31% 28% 41%

Napoli Draw Roma

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Napoli 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWDWL

Roma 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDDW

Head-to-head

Napoli 2–3–1 Roma (6 last)

Napoli2-2Roma
Roma0-1Napoli
Roma1-1Napoli
Napoli1-0Roma
Napoli2-2Roma
Roma2-0Napoli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Napoli 1524 · Roma 1583

	Napoli	Draw	Roma
Our model	31%	28%	41%
Market	30%	29%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roma (rating 1524 vs 1583).
H2H favours Napoli: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Napoli	Roma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	2.3 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.9 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.1	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.25

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.50
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.49 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 3.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +9’	3.10	3.25	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:02 +390’	2.90	3.51	2.38
20:05 +28’	2.83▼	3.50▼	2.43▲
20:51 +31’	2.88▲	3.57▲	2.47▲
21:50 +28’	2.90▲	3.50▼	2.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Napoli 2–3–1 Roma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Italy Serie A	Napoli	2-2 HT 1-1	Roma
30/11/25 Italy Serie A	Roma	0-1 HT 0-1	Napoli
02/02/25 Italy Serie A	Roma	1-1 HT 0-1	Napoli
24/11/24 Italy Serie A	Napoli	1-0 HT 0-0	Roma
28/04/24 Italy Serie A	Napoli	2-2 HT 0-0	Roma
23/12/23 Italy Serie A	Roma	2-0 HT 0-0	Napoli

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter Milan	7	6	1	0	21	9	19
2	Roma	7	5	2	0	16	3	17
3	Lazio	6	5	1	0	11	4	16
4	Como	7	4	2	1	12	7	14
5	Frosinone	7	4	1	2	13	9	13
6	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	6	3	13
7	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	11	5	12
8	Juventus	6	3	2	1	9	5	11
9	Napoli	7	3	1	3	10	7	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	8	8	9
11	Lecce	7	3	0	4	9	12	9
12	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	12	14	8
13	Torino	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
14	Bologna	7	1	2	4	6	10	5
15	Monza	6	1	1	4	9	15	4
16	Parma	6	1	1	4	4	10	4
17	Udinese	7	1	1	5	9	16	4
18	Genoa	7	1	1	5	5	13	4
19	Fiorentina	7	1	1	5	8	17	4
20	Venezia	7	1	0	6	6	16	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Napoli	Roma
Fiorentina	1-1 D	4-0 W
Inter Milan	2-3 L	2-2 D
Como	1-2 L	0-0 D
Genoa	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Roma (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Napoli

LWWWLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Venezia Italy Serie A	0-0	0-1	12	2	L
10/10	Frosinone Italy Serie A	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
20/09	Fiorentina Italy Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/09	Bologna Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
05/09	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	0-0	2-3	5	3	L
30/08	Como Italy Serie A	1-2	1-2	2	1	L
22/08	Genoa Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
24/05	Udinese Italy Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
17/05	Pisa Italy Serie A	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
11/05	Bologna Italy Serie A	1-2	2-3	7	5	L

Roma

WWWWWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Genoa Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
11/10	Como Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
19/09	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	2-0	2-2	4	6	D
14/09	Torino Italy Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
05/09	Atalanta Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	14	1	W
31/08	Lecce Italy Serie A	3-0	4-0	1	2	W
24/08	Fiorentina Italy Serie A	1-0	4-0	2	4	W
24/05	Verona Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
17/05	Lazio Italy Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	7	W
10/05	Parma Italy Serie A	1-0	3-2	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Napoli vs Roma?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Roma win (41%). Probabilities: Napoli 31%, draw 28%, Roma 41%.

How many goals are expected in Napoli vs Roma?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Napoli 1.26 · Roma 1.49), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Napoli vs Roma?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.