Prediction: Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Team pages: Fiorentina · Atalanta
- Fiorentina1-1Atalanta
- Atalanta2-0Fiorentina
- Fiorentina1-0Atalanta
- Atalanta3-2Fiorentina
- Atalanta2-3Fiorentina
- Atalanta4-1Fiorentina
| Fiorentina | Draw | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atalanta (rating 1464 vs 1515).
- H2H favours Atalanta: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fiorentina | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.6 | 1.4 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fiorentina 2–1–3 Atalanta
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Italy Serie A | Fiorentina | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Atalanta |
| 30/11/25 Italy Serie A | Atalanta | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Fiorentina |
| 30/03/25 Italy Serie A | Fiorentina | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Atalanta |
| 15/09/24 Italy Serie A | Atalanta | 3-2 HT 3-2 | Fiorentina |
| 02/06/24 Italy Serie A | Atalanta | 2-3 HT 2-3 | Fiorentina |
| 24/04/24 Coppa Italia | Atalanta | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Fiorentina |
Standings · Italy Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milan | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Como | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 13 |
| 7 | Cagliari | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 8 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 10 | Torino | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 8 |
| 14 | Monza | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 7 |
| 15 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fiorentina | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 4-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Roma | 0-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Juventus | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fiorentina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Como Italy Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 20/09 | Napoli Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/09 | Venezia Italy Serie A |
2-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Torino Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 29/08 | Frosinone Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 24/08 | Roma Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Atalanta Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
Atalanta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | AC Milan Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 12/10 | Venezia Italy Serie A |
3-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Cagliari Italy Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 05/09 | Roma Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 31/08 | Bologna Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | Sassuolo Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | Fiorentina Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Bologna Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | AC Milan Italy Serie A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fiorentina win (41%). Probabilities: Fiorentina 41%, draw 28%, Atalanta 31%.
How many goals are expected in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Fiorentina 1.43 · Atalanta 1.23), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.