Prediction: Genoa vs AC Milan
- Genoa1-2AC Milan
- AC Milan1-1Genoa
- Genoa1-2AC Milan
- AC Milan0-0Genoa
- AC Milan3-3Genoa
- Genoa0-1AC Milan
| Genoa | Draw | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 27% | 53% |
| Market | 21% | 26% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Milan (rating 1485 vs 1561).
- H2H favours AC Milan: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Genoa | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 2.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 1.5 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Genoa 0–3–3 AC Milan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Italy Serie A | Genoa | 1-2 HT 0-0 | AC Milan |
| 08/01/26 Italy Serie A | AC Milan | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Genoa |
| 05/05/25 Italy Serie A | Genoa | 1-2 HT 0-0 | AC Milan |
| 15/12/24 Italy Serie A | AC Milan | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Genoa |
| 05/05/24 Italy Serie A | AC Milan | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Genoa |
| 07/10/23 Italy Serie A | Genoa | 0-1 HT 0-0 | AC Milan |
Standings · Italy Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 8 | 28 |
| 2 | Inter Milan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Como | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 21 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 20 |
| 7 | Juventus | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 17 |
| 8 | Napoli | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 14 |
| 9 | Bologna | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| 10 | Torino | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 13 |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 13 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 11 |
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 9 |
| 15 | Parma | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 23 | 8 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 26 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 7 |
| 19 | Udinese | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 5 |
| 20 | Venezia | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 20 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Genoa | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Juventus | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Venezia | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Lazio | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: AC Milan (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Genoa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Lecce Italy Serie A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/10 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 25/10 | Venezia Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 17/10 | Roma Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Fiorentina Italy Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 20/09 | Parma Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Frosinone Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 04/09 | Como Italy Serie A |
1-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Lazio Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Napoli Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
AC Milan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Inter Milan Italy Serie A |
3-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/10 | Bologna Italy Serie A |
2-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/10 | Udinese Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/10 | Atalanta Italy Serie A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Sassuolo Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 20/09 | Lecce Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Lazio Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 28/08 | Venezia Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Torino Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Genoa vs AC Milan?
According to our model, the most likely result is an AC Milan win (53%). Probabilities: Genoa 20%, draw 27%, AC Milan 53%.
How many goals are expected in Genoa vs AC Milan?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Genoa 0.92 · AC Milan 1.62), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs AC Milan?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.