Football · Italy Serie A · 08/11, 12:30

Prediction: Napoli vs Lazio

Team pages: Napoli · Lazio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Napoli1.65

Lazio1.24

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Napoli Draw Lazio

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Napoli 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Lazio 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Napoli 1–2–3 Lazio (6 last)

Napoli0-2Lazio
Lazio0-2Napoli
Lazio2-2Napoli
Napoli0-1Lazio
Lazio3-1Napoli
Lazio0-0Napoli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Napoli 1508 · Lazio 1607

	Napoli	Draw	Lazio
Our model	46%	27%	28%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lazio (rating 1508 vs 1607).
H2H favours Lazio: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Napoli	Lazio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	2.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.2	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.05

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.07
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.77 ★
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +5’	2.00	3.60	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +11’	2.07	3.77	3.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Napoli 1–2–3 Lazio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Italy Serie A	Napoli	0-2 HT 0-1	Lazio
04/01/26 Italy Serie A	Lazio	0-2 HT 0-2	Napoli
15/02/25 Italy Serie A	Lazio	2-2 HT 1-1	Napoli
08/12/24 Italy Serie A	Napoli	0-1 HT 0-0	Lazio
05/12/24 Coppa Italia	Lazio	3-1 HT 2-1	Napoli
28/01/24 Italy Serie A	Lazio	0-0 HT 0-0	Napoli

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lazio	10	9	1	0	24	8	28
2	Inter Milan	10	8	1	1	26	13	25
3	Roma	10	7	3	0	28	10	24
4	Como	10	7	2	1	18	8	23
5	AC Milan	10	6	3	1	21	12	21
6	Frosinone	10	6	2	2	24	14	20
7	Napoli	9	4	2	3	17	11	14
8	Bologna	10	4	2	4	14	13	14
9	Juventus	9	4	2	3	11	10	14
10	Torino	10	4	1	5	14	16	13
11	Genoa	10	4	1	5	10	14	13
12	Cagliari	10	4	1	5	9	15	13
13	Atalanta	9	3	2	4	16	17	11
14	Lecce	10	3	0	7	11	21	9
15	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	14	22	8
16	Monza	10	2	1	7	17	24	7
17	Fiorentina	9	1	2	6	11	21	5
18	Parma	9	1	2	6	5	15	5
19	Udinese	10	1	2	7	11	23	5
20	Venezia	10	1	0	9	6	20	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Napoli	Lazio
Monza	4-1 W	3-1 W
Venezia	0-1 L	2-0 W
Bologna	1-0 W	1-0 W
Genoa	2-0 W	1-0 W
Udinese	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Napoli (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Napoli

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Monza Italy Serie A	1-1	4-1	2	3	W
24/10	Roma Italy Serie A	1-0	3-3	2	5	D
17/10	Venezia Italy Serie A	0-0	0-1	12	2	L
10/10	Frosinone Italy Serie A	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
20/09	Fiorentina Italy Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/09	Bologna Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
05/09	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	0-0	2-3	5	3	L
30/08	Como Italy Serie A	1-2	1-2	2	1	L
22/08	Genoa Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
24/05	Udinese Italy Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W

Lazio

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Cagliari Italy Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
27/10	Sassuolo Italy Serie A	4-2	6-2	1	3	W
24/10	Parma Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	8	2	W
18/10	Juventus Italy Serie A	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
11/10	Monza Italy Serie A	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
19/09	Venezia Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
12/09	AC Milan Italy Serie A	2-0	2-2	2	5	D
07/09	Udinese Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
30/08	Genoa Italy Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
24/08	Bologna Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Napoli vs Lazio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Napoli win (46%). Probabilities: Napoli 46%, draw 26%, Lazio 28%.

How many goals are expected in Napoli vs Lazio?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Napoli 1.65 · Lazio 1.24), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Napoli vs Lazio?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.