Football · Italy Serie A · 28/10, 18:30

Prediction: Parma vs Udinese

Team pages: Parma · Udinese

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
Parma1.04
Udinese1.19
1X2
31% 30% 39%
Parma Draw Udinese
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Parma 2-1-7 (W-D-L)
LLWLLDLWLL
Udinese 2-1-7 (W-D-L)
WLLDWLLLLL
Head-to-head
Parma 1–1–4 Udinese (6 last)
  • Udinese0-1Parma
  • Parma0-2Udinese
  • Udinese1-0Parma
  • Parma2-3Udinese
  • Parma2-2Udinese
  • Udinese3-2Parma
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parma 1415 · Udinese 1469
ParmaDrawUdinese
Our model30%31%38%
Market31%29%39%
Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Udinese (rating 1415 vs 1469).
  • H2H favours Udinese: 4-1-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

ParmaUdinese
Goals for / against (FT)0.7 / 1.71.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)0.1 / 0.80.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)10/40/50%20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)1.3 / 31.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.2 / 0.12.6 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Parma 1–1–4 Udinese

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DateHomeScoreAway
18/04/26
Italy Serie A
Udinese0-1
HT 0-0
Parma
29/11/25
Italy Serie A
Parma0-2
HT 0-1
Udinese
01/03/25
Italy Serie A
Udinese1-0
HT 1-0
Parma
16/09/24
Italy Serie A
Parma2-3
HT 2-0
Udinese
21/02/21
Italy Serie A
Parma2-2
HT 2-0
Udinese
18/10/20
Italy Serie A
Udinese3-2
HT 1-1
Parma

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Inter Milan 7610 21919
2 Lazio 7610 14419
3 Roma 7520 16317
4 AC Milan 7430 14715
5 Como 7421 12714
6 Frosinone 7412 13913
7 Cagliari 7412 6713
8 Juventus 7322 9811
9 Napoli 7313 10710
10 Torino 7313 10910
11 Atalanta 7304 10119
12 Lecce 7304 9129
13 Sassuolo 7223 12148
14 Monza 7214 13157
15 Bologna 7124 6105
16 Udinese 7115 9164
17 Genoa 7115 5134
18 Fiorentina 7115 8174
19 Parma 7115 4134
20 Venezia 7106 6163

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentParmaUdinese
Torino 0-3 L 1-2 L
Inter Milan 0-3 L 3-5 L
Como 1-2 L 1-1 D
Monza 1-1 D 3-2 W
Cagliari 0-1 L 0-1 L
Record vs common 0 W 1 D 4 L 1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Udinese (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parma

LLWLLDLWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/10 Torino
Italy Serie A
0-2 0-3 65 L
10/10 Inter Milan
Italy Serie A
0-3 0-3 10 L
20/09 Genoa
Italy Serie A
1-0 2-1 26 W
14/09 Como
Italy Serie A
0-1 1-2 41 L
06/09 Monza
Italy Serie A
0-1 1-1 64 D
29/08 Juventus
Italy Serie A
0-0 0-2 25 L
22/08 Cagliari
Italy Serie A
0-0 0-1 32 L
24/05 Sassuolo
Italy Serie A
0-0 1-0 14 W
17/05 Como
Italy Serie A
0-0 0-1 22 L
10/05 Roma
Italy Serie A
0-1 2-3 34 L

Udinese

WLLDWLLLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
18/10 Lecce
Italy Serie A
0-2 0-3 11 L
12/10 Torino
Italy Serie A
1-1 1-2 31 L
19/09 Cagliari
Italy Serie A
0-0 0-1 162 L
14/09 Inter Milan
Italy Serie A
2-2 3-5 12 L
07/09 Lazio
Italy Serie A
0-0 1-2 26 L
29/08 Monza
Italy Serie A
3-1 3-2 31 W
22/08 Como
Italy Serie A
1-0 1-1 13 D
24/05 Napoli
Italy Serie A
0-1 0-1 34 L
17/05 Cremonese
Italy Serie A
0-1 0-1 54 L
09/05 Cagliari
Italy Serie A
0-0 2-0 43 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parma vs Udinese?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Udinese win (39%). Probabilities: Parma 31%, draw 30%, Udinese 39%.

How many goals are expected in Parma vs Udinese?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Parma 1.04 · Udinese 1.19), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Parma vs Udinese?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.