Football · Italy Serie A · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Roma vs Cagliari

Team pages: Roma · Cagliari

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Roma1.83

Cagliari0.53

1X2

69% 21% 10%

Roma Draw Cagliari

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Roma 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Cagliari 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Roma 4–1–1 Cagliari (6 last)

Roma2-0Cagliari
Cagliari1-0Roma
Roma1-0Cagliari
Cagliari0-0Roma
Roma4-0Cagliari
Cagliari1-4Roma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Roma 1597 · Cagliari 1529

	Roma	Draw	Cagliari
Our model	68%	23%	9%
Market	70%	20%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roma (rating 1597 vs 1529).
H2H favours Roma: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Roma	Cagliari
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.5	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.5	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.02

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.80
2	9.00 → 9.00	Pinn 9.84 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.5% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +3’	1.36	4.75	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:45 +154’	1.34	4.80	9.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Roma 4–1–1 Cagliari

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/02/26 Italy Serie A	Roma	2-0 HT 1-0	Cagliari
07/12/25 Italy Serie A	Cagliari	1-0 HT 0-0	Roma
16/03/25 Italy Serie A	Roma	1-0 HT 0-0	Cagliari
18/08/24 Italy Serie A	Cagliari	0-0 HT 0-0	Roma
05/02/24 Italy Serie A	Roma	4-0 HT 2-0	Cagliari
08/10/23 Italy Serie A	Cagliari	1-4 HT 0-2	Roma

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter Milan	7	6	1	0	21	9	19
2	Lazio	7	6	1	0	14	4	19
3	Roma	7	5	2	0	16	3	17
4	AC Milan	7	4	3	0	14	7	15
5	Como	7	4	2	1	12	7	14
6	Frosinone	7	4	1	2	13	9	13
7	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	6	7	13
8	Juventus	7	3	2	2	9	8	11
9	Napoli	7	3	1	3	10	7	10
10	Torino	7	3	1	3	10	9	10
11	Atalanta	7	3	0	4	10	11	9
12	Lecce	7	3	0	4	9	12	9
13	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	12	14	8
14	Monza	7	2	1	4	13	15	7
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	6	10	5
16	Udinese	7	1	1	5	9	16	4
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	5	13	4
18	Fiorentina	7	1	1	5	8	17	4
19	Parma	7	1	1	5	4	13	4
20	Venezia	7	1	0	6	6	16	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Roma	Cagliari
Inter Milan	2-2 D	0-1 L
Torino	2-0 W	2-1 W
Atalanta	2-1 W	2-1 W
Lecce	4-0 W	1-0 W
Parma	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Roma (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Roma

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Genoa Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
11/10	Como Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
19/09	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	2-0	2-2	4	6	D
14/09	Torino Italy Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
05/09	Atalanta Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	14	1	W
31/08	Lecce Italy Serie A	3-0	4-0	1	2	W
24/08	Fiorentina Italy Serie A	1-0	4-0	2	4	W
24/05	Verona Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
17/05	Lazio Italy Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	7	W
10/05	Parma Italy Serie A	1-0	3-2	6	4	W

Cagliari

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Monza Italy Serie A	0-1	0-4	7	3	L
11/10	Juventus Italy Serie A	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
19/09	Udinese Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
12/09	Atalanta Italy Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	0	W
07/09	Lecce Italy Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
30/08	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
22/08	Parma Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
24/05	AC Milan Italy Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
17/05	Torino Italy Serie A	2-1	2-1	5	2	W
09/05	Udinese Italy Serie A	0-0	0-2	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Roma vs Cagliari?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Roma win (69%). Probabilities: Roma 69%, draw 21%, Cagliari 10%.

How many goals are expected in Roma vs Cagliari?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Roma 1.83 · Cagliari 0.53), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Roma vs Cagliari?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.