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Football · Italy Serie A · 27/10, 18:30

Prediction: Sassuolo vs Lazio

Team pages: Sassuolo · Lazio

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.1Total
Sassuolo1.5
Lazio1.6
1X2
34% 27% 39%
Sassuolo Draw Lazio
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Sassuolo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)
LLLLWDWLDL
Lazio 7-1-2 (W-D-L)
LLWWWWDWWW
Head-to-head
Sassuolo 1–1–4 Lazio (6 last)
  • Lazio2-1Sassuolo
  • Sassuolo1-0Lazio
  • Lazio1-1Sassuolo
  • Sassuolo0-2Lazio
  • Lazio2-0Sassuolo
  • Sassuolo0-2Lazio
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sassuolo 1462 · Lazio 1599
SassuoloDrawLazio
Our model35%26%39%
Market34%28%38%
Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lazio (rating 1462 vs 1599).
  • H2H favours Lazio: 4-1-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

SassuoloLazio
Goals for / against (FT)1.5 / 21.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.70.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)10/60/30%50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)1.8 / 3.81.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.8 / 04.5 / 0.4

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sassuolo 1–1–4 Lazio

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DateHomeScoreAway
09/03/26
Italy Serie A
Lazio2-1
HT 1-1
Sassuolo
14/09/25
Italy Serie A
Sassuolo1-0
HT 0-0
Lazio
26/05/24
Italy Serie A
Lazio1-1
HT 0-0
Sassuolo
21/10/23
Italy Serie A
Sassuolo0-2
HT 0-2
Lazio
03/05/23
Italy Serie A
Lazio2-0
HT 1-0
Sassuolo
15/01/23
Italy Serie A
Sassuolo0-2
HT 0-1
Lazio

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Inter Milan 7610 21919
2 Lazio 7610 14419
3 Roma 7520 16317
4 AC Milan 7430 14715
5 Como 7421 12714
6 Frosinone 7412 13913
7 Cagliari 7412 6713
8 Juventus 7322 9811
9 Napoli 7313 10710
10 Torino 7313 10910
11 Atalanta 7304 10119
12 Lecce 7304 9129
13 Sassuolo 7223 12148
14 Monza 7214 13157
15 Bologna 7124 6105
16 Udinese 7115 9164
17 Genoa 7115 5134
18 Fiorentina 7115 8174
19 Parma 7115 4134
20 Venezia 7106 6163

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentSassuoloLazio
AC Milan 1-1 D 2-2 D
Monza 1-2 L 3-1 W
Juventus 3-2 W 3-0 W
Bologna 2-2 D 1-0 W
Record vs common 1 W 2 D 1 L 3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lazio (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sassuolo

LLLLWDWLDL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
16/10 Frosinone
Italy Serie A
 2-3 2-4 41 L
11/10 AC Milan
Italy Serie A
 0-0 1-1 35 D
18/09 Monza
Italy Serie A
 0-0 1-2 55 L
13/09 Juventus
Italy Serie A
 0-0 3-2 34 W
06/09 Bologna
Italy Serie A
 1-0 2-2 74 D
29/08 Torino
Italy Serie A
 1-1 2-1 44 W
23/08 Atalanta
Italy Serie A
 0-1 1-2 40 L
24/05 Parma
Italy Serie A
 0-0 0-1 14 L
17/05 Lecce
Italy Serie A
 1-2 2-3 25 L
08/05 Torino
Italy Serie A
 0-0 1-2 56 L

Lazio

LLWWWWDWWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
18/10 Juventus
Italy Serie A
 1-0 3-0 72 W
11/10 Monza
Italy Serie A
 2-0 3-1 75 W
19/09 Venezia
Italy Serie A
 0-0 2-0 26 W
12/09 AC Milan
Italy Serie A
 2-0 2-2 25 D
07/09 Udinese
Italy Serie A
 0-0 2-1 86 W
30/08 Genoa
Italy Serie A
 1-0 1-0 43 W
24/08 Bologna
Italy Serie A
 0-0 1-0 68 W
23/05 Pisa
Italy Serie A
 2-1 2-1 53 W
17/05 Roma
Italy Serie A
 0-1 0-2 37 L
09/05 Inter Milan
Italy Serie A
 0-2 0-3 54 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sassuolo vs Lazio?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lazio win (39%). Probabilities: Sassuolo 34%, draw 27%, Lazio 39%.

How many goals are expected in Sassuolo vs Lazio?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Sassuolo 1.5 · Lazio 1.6), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Lazio?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.