Prediction: AC Milan vs Bologna
Team pages: AC Milan · Bologna
- Bologna0-3AC Milan
- AC Milan1-0Bologna
- AC Milan0-1Bologna
- AC Milan3-1Bologna
- Bologna2-1AC Milan
- AC Milan2-2Bologna
| AC Milan | Draw | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Milan (rating 1539 vs 1460).
- H2H favours AC Milan: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AC Milan | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.2 | 1.9 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Milan 3–1–2 Bologna
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/26 Italy Serie A | Bologna | 0-3 HT 0-2 | AC Milan |
| 14/09/25 Italy Serie A | AC Milan | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bologna |
| 14/05/25 Coppa Italia | AC Milan | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bologna |
| 09/05/25 Italy Serie A | AC Milan | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Bologna |
| 27/02/25 Italy Serie A | Bologna | 2-1 HT 0-1 | AC Milan |
| 27/01/24 Italy Serie A | AC Milan | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Bologna |
Standings · Italy Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milan | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Como | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 13 |
| 7 | Cagliari | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 8 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 10 | Torino | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 8 |
| 14 | Monza | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 7 |
| 15 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AC Milan | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Sassuolo | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Lecce | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Lazio | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Torino | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: AC Milan (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AC Milan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Atalanta Italy Serie A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Sassuolo Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 20/09 | Lecce Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Lazio Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Juventus Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 28/08 | Venezia Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Torino Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Cagliari Italy Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Atalanta Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
Bologna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Inter Milan Italy Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 11/10 | Lecce Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Torino Italy Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Napoli Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | Sassuolo Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Atalanta Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 24/08 | Lazio Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Inter Milan Italy Serie A |
2-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Atalanta Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/05 | Napoli Italy Serie A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AC Milan vs Bologna?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Milan win (59%). Probabilities: AC Milan 59%, draw 24%, Bologna 17%.
How many goals are expected in AC Milan vs Bologna?
The model expects 2.85 goals (AC Milan 1.9 · Bologna 0.95), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.