Football · Peru Liga 1 · 20/07, 02:00
Prediction: Alianza Lima vs Sport Huancayo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.97Total
Alianza Lima2.24
Sport Huancayo0.73
1X2
Alianza Lima
Draw
Sport Huancayo
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Alianza Lima
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Sport Huancayo
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alianza Lima
5–1–0
Sport Huancayo
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alianza Lima 1519 · Sport Huancayo 1489
| Alianza Lima | Draw | Sport Huancayo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | 71% | 19% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Alianza Lima: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alianza Lima | Sport Huancayo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 2.9 | 2.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima 5–1–0 Sport Huancayo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/26 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Huancayo | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Alianza Lima |
| 20/10/25 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Huancayo | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Alianza Lima |
| 15/06/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sport Huancayo |
| 23/10/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Sport Huancayo |
| 12/05/24 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Huancayo | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Alianza Lima |
| 17/08/23 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sport Huancayo |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario de Deportes | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | AD Tarma | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 13 | Deportivo Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 18 |
| 14 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 17 |
| 15 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 31 | 16 |
| 17 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 40 | 16 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 13 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alianza Lima | Sport Huancayo |
|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| CD Los Chankas | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Cienciano | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Alianza Lima (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alianza Lima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Deportivo Cali America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 28/06 | Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 24/05 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Sport Huancayo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | CD Los Chankas Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | AD Tarma Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | Union Minas Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Alianza Universidad Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alianza Lima vs Sport Huancayo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Lima win (71%). Probabilities: Alianza Lima 71%, draw 19%, Sport Huancayo 10%.
How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs Sport Huancayo?
The model expects 2.97 goals (Alianza Lima 2.24 · Sport Huancayo 0.73), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Sport Huancayo?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.