Football · Peru Liga 1 · 26/07, 22:30
Prediction: Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.08Total
Comerciantes Unidos0.8
Alianza Lima1.28
1X2
Comerciantes Unidos
Draw
Alianza Lima
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Comerciantes Unidos
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Alianza Lima
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Comerciantes Unidos
1–5
Alianza Lima
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Comerciantes Unidos 1457 · Alianza Lima 1530
| Comerciantes Unidos | Draw | Alianza Lima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 32% | 47% |
| Market | 24% | 28% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Lima (rating 1457 vs 1530).
- H2H favours Alianza Lima: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Comerciantes Unidos | Alianza Lima | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.6 | 2 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Comerciantes Unidos 1–0–5 Alianza Lima
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/26 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Comerciantes Unidos |
| 22/09/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Comerciantes Unidos |
| 19/06/25 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Alianza Lima |
| 03/08/24 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Alianza Lima |
| 25/02/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 5-1 HT 3-1 | Comerciantes Unidos |
| 04/10/18 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza Lima |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 9 | 43 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 21 | 37 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 25 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario de Deportes | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 16 | 32 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 21 | 31 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 30 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 26 |
| 8 | Sporting Cristal | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 30 | 22 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 22 |
| 10 | Alianza Atletico | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
| 11 | AD Tarma | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 20 |
| 12 | Sport Boys | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 20 | 20 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 19 | 19 |
| 14 | Deportivo Moquegua | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 19 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 30 | 18 |
| 16 | Juan Pablo II College | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 42 | 17 |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 33 | 16 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 13 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Comerciantes Unidos | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Moquegua | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Cienciano | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Sporting Cristal | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Alianza Atletico | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Comerciantes Unidos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 27/06 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 11/06 | Club Ada Jaen Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 25/05 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 11 | L |
| 25/04 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
Alianza Lima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 12/07 | Deportivo Cali America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 28/06 | Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 24/05 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Alianza Lima win (48%). Probabilities: Comerciantes Unidos 23%, draw 30%, Alianza Lima 48%.
How many goals are expected in Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?
The model expects 2.08 goals (Comerciantes Unidos 0.8 · Alianza Lima 1.28), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.