Football · Peru Liga 1 · 26/07, 03:00

Prediction: FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

FBC Melgar1.69

Sporting Cristal1.06

1X2

51% 26% 23%

FBC Melgar Draw Sporting Cristal

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FBC Melgar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDWLDW

Sporting Cristal 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDWWDW

Head-to-head

FBC Melgar 4–1–1 Sporting Cristal (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FBC Melgar 1545 · Sporting Cristal 1504

	FBC Melgar	Draw	Sporting Cristal
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBC Melgar (rating 1545 vs 1504).
H2H favours FBC Melgar: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FBC Melgar	Sporting Cristal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.3	3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.75 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.02

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +2’	1.80	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:10	1.81	3.72	3.91
19:29	1.77▼	3.75▲	4.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FBC Melgar 4–1–1 Sporting Cristal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	1-2 HT 0-0	FBC Melgar
10/08/25 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	1-0 HT 1-0	FBC Melgar
09/03/25 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-0 HT 1-0	Sporting Cristal
22/08/24 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	2-0 HT 1-0	Sporting Cristal
14/03/24 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	1-2 HT 0-2	FBC Melgar
23/07/23 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Cristal

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	18	13	4	1	32	9	43
2	CD Los Chankas	18	11	4	3	26	21	37
3	Cienciano	18	10	3	5	35	25	33
4	Universitario de Deportes	18	9	5	4	26	16	32
5	FBC Melgar	18	9	4	5	32	21	31
6	Cusco FC	18	9	3	6	25	25	30
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	18	7	5	6	21	19	26
8	Sporting Cristal	18	6	4	8	29	30	22
9	Comerciantes Unidos	18	5	7	6	20	22	22
10	Alianza Atletico	18	5	6	7	21	22	21
11	AD Tarma	18	5	5	8	23	23	20
12	Sport Boys	18	5	5	8	15	20	20
13	Atletico Grau	18	5	4	9	15	19	19
14	Deportivo Moquegua	18	5	4	9	19	26	19
15	FC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	25	30	18
16	Juan Pablo II College	18	4	5	9	24	42	17
17	Sport Huancayo	18	4	4	10	22	33	16
18	UTC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	22	29	13

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FBC Melgar	Sporting Cristal
Cienciano	3-1 W	2-3 L
Bentin Tacna Heroica	2-3 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Garcilaso	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Cristal (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FBC Melgar

WLWDWDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
29/06	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	10	10	D
12/06	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga	1-2	2-3	8	5	L
31/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	5	4	W
22/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
16/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	5	7	W
10/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
04/05	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	11	3	W
28/04	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
20/04	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	1	3	W

Sporting Cristal

LLWLLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
11/07	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-1	10	1	D
27/06	Union Comercio Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
21/06	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-1	7	8	W
13/06	Comerciantes FC Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/06	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
29/05	Cerro Porteno Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-2	1	6	L
24/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-1	12	9	W
21/05	Junior Copa Libertadores	1-3	2-3	6	3	L
15/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	3	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FBC Melgar win (51%). Probabilities: FBC Melgar 51%, draw 26%, Sporting Cristal 23%.

How many goals are expected in FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal?

The model expects 2.75 goals (FBC Melgar 1.69 · Sporting Cristal 1.06), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.