Football · Peru Liga 1 · 22/08, 22:00

Prediction: Juan Pablo II College vs AD Tarma

Team pages: Juan Pablo II College · AD Tarma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Juan Pablo II College1.45

AD Tarma1.01

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Juan Pablo II College Draw AD Tarma

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Juan Pablo II College 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDDDWLDL

AD Tarma 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLLLDD

Head-to-head

Juan Pablo II College 1–2–0 AD Tarma (3 last)

AD Tarma2-3Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College1-1AD Tarma
AD Tarma2-2Juan Pablo II College

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juan Pablo II College 1470 · AD Tarma 1457

	Juan Pablo II College	Draw	AD Tarma
Our model	46%	29%	25%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juan Pablo II College	AD Tarma
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.3	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.1	2.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.5	4.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.10 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14	1.95	3.40	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:41 +1’	2.08	3.35	3.35
10:50 +1’	2.10▲	3.32▼	3.34▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juan Pablo II College 1–2–0 AD Tarma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	2-3 HT 0-2	Juan Pablo II College
30/09/25 Peru Liga 1	Juan Pablo II College	1-1 HT 0-0	AD Tarma
11/05/25 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	2-2 HT 1-0	Juan Pablo II College

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	22	15	6	1	39	13	51
2	CD Los Chankas	22	12	5	5	31	30	41
3	FBC Melgar	22	11	5	6	39	26	38
4	Cienciano	21	11	3	7	37	28	36
5	Universitario de Deportes	21	10	6	5	29	20	36
6	Cusco FC	22	11	3	8	33	31	36
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	21	10	5	6	26	20	35
8	Sporting Cristal	22	8	5	9	37	34	29
9	Alianza Atletico	22	7	7	8	27	27	28
10	Sport Boys	21	7	6	8	19	21	27
11	Comerciantes Unidos	22	6	8	8	27	29	26
12	Atletico Grau	22	6	5	11	16	22	23
13	Sport Huancayo	22	6	5	11	28	38	23
14	AD Tarma	22	5	7	10	25	28	22
15	FC Cajamarca	21	5	6	10	30	36	21
16	Deportivo Moquegua	21	5	6	10	19	28	21
17	Juan Pablo II College	22	5	6	11	26	46	21
18	UTC Cajamarca	22	4	8	10	24	35	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juan Pablo II College	AD Tarma
Cusco FC	0-2 L	1-2 L
Cienciano	2-0 W	3-2 W
Deportivo Garcilaso	1-4 L	0-1 L
Alianza Atletico	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AD Tarma (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Juan Pablo II College

LDLDDDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
08/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
02/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
25/07	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
17/07	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	4	9	D
27/06	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
20/06	Club Ada Jaen Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
30/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
22/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
16/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	5	6	L

AD Tarma

LDWLWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	15	9	D
08/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
02/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
25/07	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
18/07	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
10/07	Cienciano Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	3-2	1	1	W
26/06	Sport Huancayo Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
19/06	Alianza Universidad Peru Copa de la Liga	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
12/06	Union Minas Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
30/05	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	12	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo II College vs AD Tarma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Juan Pablo II College win (46%). Probabilities: Juan Pablo II College 46%, draw 28%, AD Tarma 26%.

How many goals are expected in Juan Pablo II College vs AD Tarma?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Juan Pablo II College 1.45 · AD Tarma 1.01), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Juan Pablo II College vs AD Tarma?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.