Football · Peru Liga 1 · 20/09, 22:30

Prediction: Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Moquegua

Team pages: Juan Pablo II College · Deportivo Moquegua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Juan Pablo II College1.74

Deportivo Moquegua0.89

1X2

56% 26% 18%

Juan Pablo II College Draw Deportivo Moquegua

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Juan Pablo II College 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Deportivo Moquegua 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Juan Pablo II College 0–1 Deportivo Moquegua (1 last)

Deportivo Moquegua3-0Juan Pablo II College

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juan Pablo II College 1509 · Deportivo Moquegua 1449

	Juan Pablo II College	Draw	Deportivo Moquegua
Our model	56%	26%	18%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo II College (rating 1509 vs 1449).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juan Pablo II College	Deportivo Moquegua
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	0.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	1.4 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.7	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 07:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.78 ★
2	4.75 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24 +5’	1.70	3.60	4.75
12:22 +2’	1.53▼	3.80▲	6.00▲
17:46 +11’	1.57▲	3.75▼	5.75▼
11:20 +2’	1.53▼	3.90▲	6.00▲
00:36 +3’	1.60▲	3.70▼	5.50▼
07:15 +3’	1.67▲	3.60▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +21’	1.54	4.00	5.58
00:55 +30’	1.55▲	3.98▼	5.51▼
01:16 +20’	1.54▼	4.01▲	5.56▲
07:05 +56’	1.53▼	4.05▲	5.57▲
00:24 +15’	1.65▲	3.78▼	4.86▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juan Pablo II College 0–0–1 Deportivo Moquegua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Moquegua	3-0 HT 0-0	Juan Pablo II College

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	27	16	8	3	44	18	56
2	Universitario de Deportes	27	14	7	6	43	31	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	27	14	6	7	39	24	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	13	7	7	45	29	46
5	Cusco FC	27	14	3	10	40	38	45
6	CD Los Chankas	26	12	5	9	35	44	41
7	Cienciano	25	12	4	9	44	37	40
8	Alianza Atletico	27	11	7	9	40	35	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	11	5	11	48	40	38
10	Sport Boys	27	10	8	9	29	26	38
11	Atletico Grau	27	9	5	13	26	31	32
12	Sport Huancayo	26	9	5	12	34	42	32
13	Juan Pablo II College	26	8	7	11	38	52	31
14	Comerciantes Unidos	27	7	9	11	35	38	30
15	FC Cajamarca	27	7	6	14	41	52	27
16	Deportivo Moquegua	26	6	7	13	24	37	25
17	AD Tarma	26	5	7	14	27	41	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	26	4	8	14	30	47	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juan Pablo II College	Deportivo Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca	2-1 W	0-0 D
Cusco FC	0-2 L	0-2 L
Atletico Grau	0-0 D	0-1 L
Sporting Cristal	0-2 L	1-2 L
Deportivo Garcilaso	1-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juan Pablo II College

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	5	11	W
06/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
29/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	3-2	4-3	2	5	W
22/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-0	5-1	2	0	W
15/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
08/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
02/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
25/07	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
17/07	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	4	10	D
30/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	3	4	L

Deportivo Moquegua

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	10	7	L
06/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
30/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
22/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
16/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
09/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
02/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
26/07	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
18/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
29/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Moquegua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Juan Pablo II College win (56%). Probabilities: Juan Pablo II College 56%, draw 26%, Deportivo Moquegua 18%.

How many goals are expected in Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Moquegua?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Juan Pablo II College 1.74 · Deportivo Moquegua 0.89), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Moquegua?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.