Football · Peru Liga 1 · 19/09, 22:30

Prediction: Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau

Team pages: Sporting Cristal · Atletico Grau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Sporting Cristal2.18

Atletico Grau0.82

1X2

68% 21% 12%

Sporting Cristal Draw Atletico Grau

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Cristal 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Atletico Grau 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sporting Cristal 4–1–1 Atletico Grau (6 last)

Atletico Grau4-1Sporting Cristal
Atletico Grau1-2Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal2-1Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau1-1Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal1-0Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau2-3Sporting Cristal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Cristal 1543 · Atletico Grau 1513

	Sporting Cristal	Draw	Atletico Grau
Our model	68%	20%	12%
Market	67%	21%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sporting Cristal: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Cristal	Atletico Grau
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.8	1.3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.33

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:18 +7’	1.36	4.33	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Cristal 4–1–1 Atletico Grau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Atletico Grau	4-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Cristal
19/11/25 Peru Liga 1	Atletico Grau	1-2 HT 0-1	Sporting Cristal
13/07/25 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	2-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Grau
11/08/24 Peru Liga 1	Atletico Grau	1-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Cristal
02/03/24 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Grau
17/08/23 Peru Liga 1	Atletico Grau	2-3 HT 2-0	Sporting Cristal

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	26	15	8	3	42	18	53
2	Universitario de Deportes	26	14	7	5	43	27	49
3	FBC Melgar	26	13	6	7	44	28	45
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	25	13	6	6	35	23	45
5	Cusco FC	26	13	3	10	38	37	42
6	CD Los Chankas	26	12	5	9	35	44	41
7	Cienciano	25	12	4	9	44	37	40
8	Alianza Atletico	25	10	7	8	37	31	37
9	Sporting Cristal	26	10	5	11	45	39	35
10	Sport Boys	25	9	7	9	27	25	34
11	Sport Huancayo	26	9	5	12	34	42	32
12	Juan Pablo II College	26	8	7	11	38	52	31
13	Comerciantes Unidos	26	7	9	10	34	36	30
14	Atletico Grau	25	8	5	12	22	27	29
15	FC Cajamarca	26	7	6	13	40	50	27
16	Deportivo Moquegua	26	6	7	13	24	37	25
17	AD Tarma	25	5	7	13	27	39	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	26	4	8	14	30	47	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Cristal	Atletico Grau
Deportivo Moquegua	2-1 W	1-0 W
Sport Boys	0-1 L	0-1 L
Sport Huancayo	4-1 W	0-2 L
Juan Pablo II College	2-0 W	0-0 D
FBC Melgar	1-2 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Garcilaso	1-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Cristal (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Cristal

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
06/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	5-0	9	4	W
30/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
21/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
16/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	11	4	W
08/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
02/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
26/07	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
17/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
01/06	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-3	5	2	L

Atletico Grau

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-4	3	6	L
01/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
21/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	4	3	W
14/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
08/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
01/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
25/07	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
18/07	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-1	2	2	W
29/05	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
24/05	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Cristal win (68%). Probabilities: Sporting Cristal 68%, draw 21%, Atletico Grau 12%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau?

The model expects 3 goals (Sporting Cristal 2.18 · Atletico Grau 0.82), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.