Football · Peru Liga 1 · 20/09, 03:15
Prediction: FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys
Team pages: FBC Melgar · Sport Boys
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
FBC Melgar1.67
Sport Boys0.65
1X2
FBC Melgar
Draw
Sport Boys
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
FBC Melgar
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Sport Boys
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FBC Melgar
5–1
Sport Boys
(6 last)
- Sport Boys1-3FBC Melgar
- Sport Boys1-0FBC Melgar
- FBC Melgar2-1Sport Boys
- Sport Boys0-2FBC Melgar
- FBC Melgar2-1Sport Boys
- Sport Boys0-2FBC Melgar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FBC Melgar 1553 · Sport Boys 1544
| FBC Melgar | Draw | Sport Boys | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 26% | 13% |
| Market | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FBC Melgar: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FBC Melgar | Sport Boys | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.4 | 2.1 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FBC Melgar 5–0–1 Sport Boys
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/26 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Boys | 1-3 HT 0-3 | FBC Melgar |
| 21/10/25 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Boys | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FBC Melgar |
| 14/06/25 Peru Liga 1 | FBC Melgar | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Sport Boys |
| 18/10/24 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Boys | 0-2 HT 0-2 | FBC Melgar |
| 05/05/24 Peru Liga 1 | FBC Melgar | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Sport Boys |
| 31/07/23 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Boys | 0-2 HT 0-2 | FBC Melgar |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 42 | 18 | 53 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 27 | 49 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 44 | 28 | 45 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 23 | 45 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 42 |
| 6 | CD Los Chankas | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 35 | 44 | 41 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 37 | 40 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 37 | 31 | 37 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 39 | 35 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 27 | 25 | 34 |
| 11 | Sport Huancayo | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 42 | 32 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 52 | 31 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 36 | 30 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 27 | 29 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 50 | 27 |
| 16 | Deportivo Moquegua | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 24 | 37 | 25 |
| 17 | AD Tarma | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 27 | 39 | 22 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 47 | 15 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FBC Melgar | Sport Boys |
|---|---|---|
| AD Tarma | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Atletico Grau | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Alianza Lima | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| CD Los Chankas | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Moquegua | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Sporting Cristal | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Cienciano | 3-1 W | 5-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FBC Melgar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 07/09 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 01/09 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Sport Boys
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 30/08 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
3-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 9 | D |
| 09/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 19/07 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FBC Melgar win (62%). Probabilities: FBC Melgar 62%, draw 25%, Sport Boys 14%.
How many goals are expected in FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys?
The model expects 2.32 goals (FBC Melgar 1.67 · Sport Boys 0.65), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.