Football · Peru Liga 1 · 20/09, 01:00

Prediction: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario de Deportes

Team pages: Deportivo Garcilaso · Universitario de Deportes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Deportivo Garcilaso1.26

Universitario de Deportes1.2

1X2

37% 29% 34%

Deportivo Garcilaso Draw Universitario de Deportes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Garcilaso 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Universitario de Deportes 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Deportivo Garcilaso 0–3–3 Universitario de Deportes (6 last)

Universitario de Deportes4-1Deportivo Garcilaso
Universitario de Deportes0-0Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso0-1Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes3-1Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso2-2Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes1-1Deportivo Garcilaso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Garcilaso 1581 · Universitario de Deportes 1589

	Deportivo Garcilaso	Draw	Universitario de Deportes
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Universitario de Deportes: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Garcilaso	Universitario de Deportes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.6	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.7	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.6	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.96 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
07:05 +3’	2.50	3.20	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:23 +33’	2.96	3.06	2.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Garcilaso 0–3–3 Universitario de Deportes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	4-1 HT 2-0	Deportivo Garcilaso
08/11/25 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Garcilaso
07/07/25 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	0-1 HT 0-0	Universitario de Deportes
17/08/24 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	3-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Garcilaso
09/03/24 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	2-2 HT 1-1	Universitario de Deportes
20/08/23 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Garcilaso

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	26	15	8	3	42	18	53
2	Universitario de Deportes	26	14	7	5	43	27	49
3	FBC Melgar	26	13	6	7	44	28	45
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	25	13	6	6	35	23	45
5	Cusco FC	26	13	3	10	38	37	42
6	CD Los Chankas	26	12	5	9	35	44	41
7	Cienciano	25	12	4	9	44	37	40
8	Alianza Atletico	25	10	7	8	37	31	37
9	Sporting Cristal	26	10	5	11	45	39	35
10	Sport Boys	25	9	7	9	27	25	34
11	Sport Huancayo	26	9	5	12	34	42	32
12	Juan Pablo II College	26	8	7	11	38	52	31
13	Comerciantes Unidos	26	7	9	10	34	36	30
14	Atletico Grau	25	8	5	12	22	27	29
15	FC Cajamarca	26	7	6	13	40	50	27
16	Deportivo Moquegua	26	6	7	13	24	37	25
17	AD Tarma	25	5	7	13	27	39	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	26	4	8	14	30	47	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Garcilaso	Universitario de Deportes
Alianza Lima	1-0 W	2-1 W
Cusco FC	4-1 W	2-1 W
Cienciano	0-0 D	0-2 L
AD Tarma	1-0 W	2-1 W
FC Cajamarca	2-1 W	3-2 W
Sporting Cristal	0-1 L	1-1 D
Comerciantes Unidos	0-0 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Garcilaso (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Garcilaso

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-2	12	6	W
30/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
23/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
17/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
09/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
02/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
27/07	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
17/07	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
30/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	0	4	W
25/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Universitario de Deportes

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/09	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
29/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-2	4-2	8	6	W
24/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	3	7	W
08/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
03/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
25/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
18/07	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
31/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	12	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario de Deportes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Garcilaso win (37%). Probabilities: Deportivo Garcilaso 37%, draw 29%, Universitario de Deportes 34%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario de Deportes?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Deportivo Garcilaso 1.26 · Universitario de Deportes 1.2), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario de Deportes?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.