Football · Peru Liga 1 · 20/09, 20:00
Prediction: Sport Huancayo vs UTC Cajamarca
Team pages: Sport Huancayo · UTC Cajamarca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.38Total
Sport Huancayo2.47
UTC Cajamarca0.92
1X2
Sport Huancayo
Draw
UTC Cajamarca
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Sport Huancayo
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
UTC Cajamarca
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sport Huancayo
2–4–0
UTC Cajamarca
(6 last)
- UTC Cajamarca2-2Sport Huancayo
- UTC Cajamarca0-3Sport Huancayo
- Sport Huancayo1-0UTC Cajamarca
- UTC Cajamarca1-1Sport Huancayo
- Sport Huancayo1-1UTC Cajamarca
- UTC Cajamarca0-0Sport Huancayo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sport Huancayo 1523 · UTC Cajamarca 1402
| Sport Huancayo | Draw | UTC Cajamarca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Market | 70% | 19% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sport Huancayo (rating 1523 vs 1402).
- H2H favours Sport Huancayo: 2-4-0.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sport Huancayo | UTC Cajamarca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.1 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.7 | 4.2 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Huancayo 2–4–0 UTC Cajamarca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/26 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Sport Huancayo |
| 09/11/25 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Sport Huancayo |
| 04/07/25 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Huancayo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 02/11/24 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sport Huancayo |
| 25/05/24 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Huancayo | 1-1 HT 0-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 30/06/23 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sport Huancayo |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 44 | 18 | 56 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 27 | 49 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 44 | 28 | 45 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 24 | 45 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 38 | 45 |
| 6 | CD Los Chankas | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 35 | 44 | 41 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 37 | 40 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 35 | 40 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 37 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 39 | 35 |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 25 | 28 | 32 |
| 12 | Sport Huancayo | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 42 | 32 |
| 13 | Juan Pablo II College | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 52 | 31 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 38 | 30 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 41 | 52 | 27 |
| 16 | Deportivo Moquegua | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 24 | 37 | 25 |
| 17 | AD Tarma | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 27 | 41 | 22 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 47 | 15 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sport Huancayo | UTC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes Unidos | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| AD Tarma | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Moquegua | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| CD Los Chankas | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Atletico Grau | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Alianza Lima | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Universitario de Deportes | 1-2 L | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Sport Huancayo (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sport Huancayo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 05/09 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 30/08 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
3-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 10 | W |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 07/08 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 20/07 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
UTC Cajamarca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 11 | L |
| 04/09 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sport Huancayo vs UTC Cajamarca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sport Huancayo win (70%). Probabilities: Sport Huancayo 70%, draw 19%, UTC Cajamarca 11%.
How many goals are expected in Sport Huancayo vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model expects 3.38 goals (Sport Huancayo 2.47 · UTC Cajamarca 0.92), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sport Huancayo vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.