Football · Peru Liga 1 · 19/09, 20:00

Prediction: FC Cajamarca vs Cusco FC

Team pages: FC Cajamarca · Cusco FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

FC Cajamarca1.51

Cusco FC1.64

1X2

34% 27% 40%

FC Cajamarca Draw Cusco FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cajamarca 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLLWLW

Cusco FC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLWWL

Head-to-head

FC Cajamarca 0–1 Cusco FC (1 last)

Cusco FC1-0FC Cajamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cajamarca 1460 · Cusco FC 1523

	FC Cajamarca	Draw	Cusco FC
Our model	34%	26%	40%
Market	34%	27%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cusco FC (rating 1460 vs 1523).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cajamarca	Cusco FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.3	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3	2.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.5	3.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.40

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 3.03
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.76 ★
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:20 +4’	2.75	3.40	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +176’	3.09	3.79	2.04
15:20 +114’	3.03▼	3.76▼	2.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cajamarca 0–0–1 Cusco FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	26	15	8	3	42	18	53
2	Universitario de Deportes	26	14	7	5	43	27	49
3	FBC Melgar	26	13	6	7	44	28	45
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	25	13	6	6	35	23	45
5	Cusco FC	26	13	3	10	38	37	42
6	CD Los Chankas	26	12	5	9	35	44	41
7	Cienciano	25	12	4	9	44	37	40
8	Alianza Atletico	25	10	7	8	37	31	37
9	Sporting Cristal	26	10	5	11	45	39	35
10	Sport Boys	25	9	7	9	27	25	34
11	Sport Huancayo	26	9	5	12	34	42	32
12	Juan Pablo II College	26	8	7	11	38	52	31
13	Comerciantes Unidos	26	7	9	10	34	36	30
14	Atletico Grau	25	8	5	12	22	27	29
15	FC Cajamarca	26	7	6	13	40	50	27
16	Deportivo Moquegua	26	6	7	13	24	37	25
17	AD Tarma	25	5	7	13	27	39	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	26	4	8	14	30	47	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cajamarca	Cusco FC
Cienciano	2-5 L	2-1 W
Comerciantes Unidos	3-2 W	1-3 L
Universitario de Deportes	2-3 L	1-2 L
FBC Melgar	4-2 W	0-1 L
Deportivo Garcilaso	1-2 L	1-4 L
Juan Pablo II College	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Cajamarca (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cajamarca

DDLLWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-5	4	2	L
28/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
09/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-2	4	8	W
01/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	1	6	L
27/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
17/07	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	1	10	D
31/05	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	2	0	D

Cusco FC

WWLWLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
06/09	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
31/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	8	5	L
15/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-0	8	4	W
07/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	1	5	L
02/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	1	5	W
25/07	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
19/07	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	8	2	W
30/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	0	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cajamarca vs Cusco FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cusco FC win (40%). Probabilities: FC Cajamarca 34%, draw 27%, Cusco FC 40%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cajamarca vs Cusco FC?

The model expects 3.14 goals (FC Cajamarca 1.51 · Cusco FC 1.64), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cajamarca vs Cusco FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.