Football · Peru Liga 1 · 19/09, 03:00

Prediction: Alianza Lima vs AD Tarma

Team pages: Alianza Lima · AD Tarma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Alianza Lima2.29

AD Tarma0.55

1X2

77% 17% 7%

Alianza Lima Draw AD Tarma

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Lima 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWDLDL

AD Tarma 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDDLLL

Head-to-head

Alianza Lima 2–2–2 AD Tarma (6 last)

AD Tarma0-1Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima3-1AD Tarma
AD Tarma3-0Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima0-0AD Tarma
AD Tarma2-0Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima0-0AD Tarma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Lima 1507 · AD Tarma 1419

	Alianza Lima	Draw	AD Tarma
Our model	76%	17%	6%
Market	77%	16%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Lima (rating 1507 vs 1419).
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Lima	AD Tarma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	0.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.2	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	5 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.75

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.77

2 (+1.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Pinn 1.27 ★
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:57 +1’	1.20	5.75	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:22 +17’	1.28	5.44	8.89
07:03 +42’	1.27▼	5.50▲	9.07▲
08:12 +27’	1.27▼	5.52▲	9.11▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima 2–2–2 AD Tarma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/26 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	0-1 HT 0-1	Alianza Lima
17/08/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	3-1 HT 0-0	AD Tarma
29/03/25 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	3-0 HT 1-0	Alianza Lima
11/08/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Tarma
01/03/24 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	2-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
21/10/23 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Tarma

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	26	15	8	3	42	18	53
2	Universitario de Deportes	26	14	7	5	43	27	49
3	FBC Melgar	26	13	6	7	44	28	45
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	25	13	6	6	35	23	45
5	Cusco FC	26	13	3	10	38	37	42
6	CD Los Chankas	26	12	5	9	35	44	41
7	Cienciano	25	12	4	9	44	37	40
8	Alianza Atletico	25	10	7	8	37	31	37
9	Sport Boys	25	9	7	9	27	25	34
10	Sporting Cristal	25	9	5	11	43	38	32
11	Sport Huancayo	26	9	5	12	34	42	32
12	Juan Pablo II College	26	8	7	11	38	52	31
13	Comerciantes Unidos	26	7	9	10	34	36	30
14	Atletico Grau	25	8	5	12	22	27	29
15	FC Cajamarca	26	7	6	13	40	50	27
16	Deportivo Moquegua	25	6	7	12	23	35	25
17	AD Tarma	25	5	7	13	27	39	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	26	4	8	14	30	47	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Lima	AD Tarma
Universitario de Deportes	1-2 L	1-2 L
Juan Pablo II College	1-1 D	1-5 L
Deportivo Garcilaso	0-1 L	0-1 L
FBC Melgar	1-1 D	0-3 L
UTC Cajamarca	1-0 W	1-1 D
Sport Boys	1-1 D	0-2 L
Alianza Atletico	3-1 W	1-1 D
Sport Huancayo	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza Lima (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Lima

DWDWDWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
06/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
30/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	10	6	L
23/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
09/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
02/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	8	5	W
26/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
20/07	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
31/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	1	0	D

AD Tarma

LLLLLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
30/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-3	1-3	9	10	L
22/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-5	6	0	L
15/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	15	9	D
08/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
02/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
25/07	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
18/07	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	3	L
30/05	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	12	5	L
24/05	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-2	0	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Lima vs AD Tarma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Lima win (77%). Probabilities: Alianza Lima 77%, draw 17%, AD Tarma 7%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs AD Tarma?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Alianza Lima 2.29 · AD Tarma 0.55), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs AD Tarma?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.