Football · Peru Liga 1 · 23/09, 22:00
Prediction: AD Tarma vs Cienciano
Team pages: AD Tarma · Cienciano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.27Total
AD Tarma1.57
Cienciano1.7
1X2
AD Tarma
Draw
Cienciano
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
AD Tarma
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Cienciano
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AD Tarma
3–2–1
Cienciano
(6 last)
- Cienciano2-3AD Tarma
- Cienciano3-2AD Tarma
- AD Tarma1-0Cienciano
- AD Tarma1-1Cienciano
- Cienciano2-2AD Tarma
- Cienciano0-1AD Tarma
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AD Tarma 1419 · Cienciano 1498
| AD Tarma | Draw | Cienciano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cienciano (rating 1419 vs 1498).
- H2H favours AD Tarma: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AD Tarma | Cienciano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 2.2 | 1.5 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.7 | 2.6 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.8 | 3.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Tarma 3–2–1 Cienciano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/26 Peru Copa de la Liga | Cienciano | 2-3 HT 0-1 | AD Tarma |
| 04/04/26 Peru Liga 1 | Cienciano | 3-2 HT 2-2 | AD Tarma |
| 19/07/25 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cienciano |
| 05/03/25 Copa Sudamericana | AD Tarma | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Cienciano |
| 10/02/25 Peru Liga 1 | Cienciano | 2-2 HT 0-0 | AD Tarma |
| 22/07/24 Peru Liga 1 | Cienciano | 0-1 HT 0-0 | AD Tarma |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 44 | 18 | 56 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 43 | 31 | 49 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 24 | 48 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 45 | 29 | 46 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 38 | 45 |
| 6 | CD Los Chankas | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 35 | 44 | 41 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 37 | 40 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 35 | 40 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 48 | 40 | 38 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 26 | 38 |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 31 | 32 |
| 12 | Sport Huancayo | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 42 | 32 |
| 13 | Juan Pablo II College | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 52 | 31 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 38 | 30 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 41 | 52 | 27 |
| 16 | Deportivo Moquegua | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 24 | 37 | 25 |
| 17 | AD Tarma | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 27 | 41 | 22 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 47 | 15 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AD Tarma | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 0-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Sport Huancayo | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Juan Pablo II College | 1-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Alianza Atletico | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Sport Boys | 0-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Universitario de Deportes | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Cusco FC | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 7 L | 1 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Cienciano (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AD Tarma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/09 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-3 | 1-3 | 9 | 10 | L |
| 22/08 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-5 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 15/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 15 | 9 | D |
| 08/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 18/07 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 12 | 5 | L |
Cienciano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
3-2 | 5-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
1-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 17/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 06/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 03/08 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 01/06 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AD Tarma vs Cienciano?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cienciano win (40%). Probabilities: AD Tarma 34%, draw 27%, Cienciano 40%.
How many goals are expected in AD Tarma vs Cienciano?
The model expects 3.27 goals (AD Tarma 1.57 · Cienciano 1.7), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in AD Tarma vs Cienciano?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.