Football · Peru Liga 1 · 10/10, 20:00

Prediction: AD Tarma vs FC Cajamarca

Team pages: AD Tarma · FC Cajamarca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

AD Tarma1.87

FC Cajamarca1.31

1X2

49% 26% 25%

AD Tarma Draw FC Cajamarca

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Tarma 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLLLLW

FC Cajamarca 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLWLWL

Head-to-head

AD Tarma 0–1–1 FC Cajamarca (2 last)

FC Cajamarca2-2AD Tarma
FC Cajamarca2-1AD Tarma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Tarma 1415 · FC Cajamarca 1461

	AD Tarma	Draw	FC Cajamarca
Our model	50%	25%	26%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Cajamarca (rating 1415 vs 1461).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Tarma	FC Cajamarca
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.1	1.8 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	1.2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.8	4.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.72
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.44 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +1’	1.90	3.50	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:00 +313’	1.69	3.72	4.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Tarma 0–1–1 FC Cajamarca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Peru Liga 1	FC Cajamarca	2-2 HT 0-0	AD Tarma
18/01/26 America Friendlies	FC Cajamarca	2-1 HT 2-1	AD Tarma

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	27	16	8	3	44	18	56
2	Universitario de Deportes	27	14	7	6	43	31	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	27	14	6	7	39	24	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	13	7	7	45	29	46
5	Cusco FC	27	14	3	10	40	38	45
6	CD Los Chankas	27	12	6	9	36	45	42
7	Cienciano	27	12	5	10	46	40	41
8	Alianza Atletico	27	11	7	9	40	35	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	11	5	11	48	40	38
10	Sport Boys	27	10	8	9	29	26	38
11	Sport Huancayo	27	10	5	12	37	44	35
12	Juan Pablo II College	27	9	7	11	42	52	34
13	Atletico Grau	27	9	5	13	26	31	32
14	Comerciantes Unidos	27	7	9	11	35	38	30
15	FC Cajamarca	27	7	6	14	41	52	27
16	AD Tarma	27	6	7	14	29	42	25
17	Deportivo Moquegua	27	6	7	14	24	41	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	4	8	15	32	50	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Tarma	FC Cajamarca
Cienciano	2-1 W	2-5 L
FBC Melgar	0-3 L	4-2 W
Sport Huancayo	1-3 L	0-2 L
Juan Pablo II College	1-5 L	2-2 D
Deportivo Garcilaso	0-1 L	1-2 L
Universitario de Deportes	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Cajamarca (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Tarma

LLLDDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
19/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
07/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
30/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-3	1-3	9	10	L
22/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-5	6	0	L
15/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	15	9	D
08/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
02/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
25/07	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
18/07	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	3	L

FC Cajamarca

DLLWLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-5	4	2	L
28/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
09/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-2	4	8	W
01/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	1	6	L
27/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
17/07	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	1	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Tarma vs FC Cajamarca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Tarma win (49%). Probabilities: AD Tarma 49%, draw 26%, FC Cajamarca 25%.

How many goals are expected in AD Tarma vs FC Cajamarca?

The model expects 3.19 goals (AD Tarma 1.87 · FC Cajamarca 1.31), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Tarma vs FC Cajamarca?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.