Football · Peru Liga 1 · 18/10, 03:30
Prediction: Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
Team pages: Alianza Lima · Atletico Grau
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Alianza Lima2
Atletico Grau0.48
1X2
Alianza Lima
Draw
Atletico Grau
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Alianza Lima
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Atletico Grau
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alianza Lima
4–1–1
Atletico Grau
(6 last)
- Atletico Grau0-1Alianza Lima
- Alianza Lima2-1Atletico Grau
- Atletico Grau1-1Alianza Lima
- Atletico Grau1-0Alianza Lima
- Alianza Lima2-0Atletico Grau
- Alianza Lima2-0Atletico Grau
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alianza Lima 1510 · Atletico Grau 1493
| Alianza Lima | Draw | Atletico Grau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 20% | 7% |
| Market | 74% | 18% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Alianza Lima: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alianza Lima | Atletico Grau | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.4 / 7.2 | 2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima 4–1–1 Atletico Grau
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Peru Liga 1 | Atletico Grau | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Alianza Lima |
| 02/10/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Grau |
| 10/05/25 Peru Liga 1 | Atletico Grau | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Alianza Lima |
| 18/09/24 Peru Liga 1 | Atletico Grau | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza Lima |
| 15/04/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Grau |
| 24/06/23 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Atletico Grau |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 44 | 18 | 56 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 33 | 50 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 25 | 48 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 31 | 47 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 38 | 45 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 40 | 44 |
| 7 | CD Los Chankas | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 43 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 35 | 40 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 48 | 40 | 38 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 44 | 38 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II College | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 53 | 35 |
| 12 | Sport Boys | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 26 | 34 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 31 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 52 | 26 |
| 16 | AD Tarma | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 42 | 25 |
| 17 | Deportivo Moquegua | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 43 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 50 | 10 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alianza Lima | Atletico Grau |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Pablo II College | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 0-1 L | 2-4 L |
| FBC Melgar | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Sport Boys | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Alianza Atletico | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Sport Huancayo | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Alianza Lima (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alianza Lima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 20/07 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 7 | W |
Atletico Grau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/09 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 14/08 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Lima win (73%). Probabilities: Alianza Lima 73%, draw 19%, Atletico Grau 8%.
How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Alianza Lima 2 · Atletico Grau 0.48), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.