Football · Peru Liga 1 · 19/10, 01:30
Prediction: Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca
Team pages: Cienciano · UTC Cajamarca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
Cienciano2.44
UTC Cajamarca0.71
1X2
Cienciano
Draw
UTC Cajamarca
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Cienciano
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
UTC Cajamarca
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cienciano
3–3–0
UTC Cajamarca
(6 last)
- UTC Cajamarca2-2Cienciano
- UTC Cajamarca0-2Cienciano
- Cienciano6-1UTC Cajamarca
- UTC Cajamarca1-2Cienciano
- Cienciano1-1UTC Cajamarca
- Cienciano2-2UTC Cajamarca
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cienciano 1481 · UTC Cajamarca 1405
| Cienciano | Draw | UTC Cajamarca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| Market | 75% | 17% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cienciano (rating 1481 vs 1405).
- H2H favours Cienciano: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cienciano | UTC Cajamarca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 6.3 | 1.5 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cienciano 3–3–0 UTC Cajamarca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Cienciano |
| 13/10/25 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Cienciano |
| 25/05/25 Peru Liga 1 | Cienciano | 6-1 HT 5-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 13/09/24 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Cienciano |
| 07/04/24 Peru Liga 1 | Cienciano | 1-1 HT 1-1 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 08/07/23 Peru Liga 1 | Cienciano | 2-2 HT 0-1 | UTC Cajamarca |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 29 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 49 | 20 | 62 |
| 2 | FBC Melgar | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 51 | 33 | 50 |
| 3 | Universitario de Deportes | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 33 | 50 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 29 | 48 |
| 5 | CD Los Chankas | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 46 | 46 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 29 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 42 | 45 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 40 | 44 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 36 | 43 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 49 | 40 | 41 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 45 | 41 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II College | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 53 | 38 |
| 12 | Sport Boys | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 31 | 34 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 34 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 52 | 26 |
| 16 | AD Tarma | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 44 | 25 |
| 17 | Deportivo Moquegua | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 43 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 32 | 51 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cienciano | UTC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Moquegua | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| AD Tarma | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Cusco FC | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Alianza Atletico | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Universitario de Deportes | 2-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Juan Pablo II College | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Cienciano (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cienciano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 30/09 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 23/09 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 04/09 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
3-2 | 5-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
1-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 17/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 06/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 03/08 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
UTC Cajamarca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 11/09 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 11 | L |
| 04/09 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cienciano win (75%). Probabilities: Cienciano 75%, draw 17%, UTC Cajamarca 8%.
How many goals are expected in Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Cienciano 2.44 · UTC Cajamarca 0.71), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.