Football · Peru Liga 1 · 17/10, 18:00
Prediction: Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos
Team pages: Sporting Cristal · Comerciantes Unidos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.39Total
Sporting Cristal2.5
Comerciantes Unidos0.89
1X2
Sporting Cristal
Draw
Comerciantes Unidos
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Sporting Cristal
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Comerciantes Unidos
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sporting Cristal
4–2
Comerciantes Unidos
(6 last)
- Comerciantes Unidos1-0Sporting Cristal
- Comerciantes Unidos1-4Sporting Cristal
- Sporting Cristal2-0Comerciantes Unidos
- Sporting Cristal3-0Comerciantes Unidos
- Comerciantes Unidos0-1Sporting Cristal
- Sporting Cristal0-2Comerciantes Unidos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sporting Cristal 1592 · Comerciantes Unidos 1463
| Sporting Cristal | Draw | Comerciantes Unidos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 18% | 11% |
| Market | 71% | 19% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Cristal (rating 1592 vs 1463).
- H2H favours Sporting Cristal: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting Cristal | Comerciantes Unidos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1 | 1.6 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.2 | 1.2 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Cristal 4–0–2 Comerciantes Unidos
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sporting Cristal |
| 01/11/25 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Sporting Cristal |
| 29/06/25 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Comerciantes Unidos |
| 03/11/24 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Comerciantes Unidos |
| 25/05/24 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sporting Cristal |
| 30/09/18 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Comerciantes Unidos |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 44 | 18 | 56 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 33 | 50 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 25 | 48 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 31 | 47 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 38 | 45 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 40 | 44 |
| 7 | CD Los Chankas | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 43 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 35 | 40 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 48 | 40 | 38 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 44 | 38 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II College | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 53 | 35 |
| 12 | Sport Boys | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 26 | 34 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 31 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 52 | 26 |
| 16 | AD Tarma | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 42 | 25 |
| 17 | Deportivo Moquegua | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 43 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 50 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sporting Cristal | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Grau | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| CD Los Chankas | 5-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Alianza Atletico | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Sport Huancayo | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Universitario de Deportes | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Juan Pablo II College | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Sporting Cristal (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting Cristal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 02/08 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 26/07 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/07 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
Comerciantes Unidos
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 18/09 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 28/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 14/08 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 07/08 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
2-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Cristal win (71%). Probabilities: Sporting Cristal 71%, draw 19%, Comerciantes Unidos 10%.
How many goals are expected in Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The model expects 3.39 goals (Sporting Cristal 2.5 · Comerciantes Unidos 0.89), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.