Football · Peru Liga 1 · 18/10, 01:00

Prediction: FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Team pages: FBC Melgar · Deportivo Garcilaso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

FBC Melgar1.6

Deportivo Garcilaso0.73

1X2

58% 26% 17%

FBC Melgar Draw Deportivo Garcilaso

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FBC Melgar 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLWWDD

Deportivo Garcilaso 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWLWL

Head-to-head

FBC Melgar 1–3–2 Deportivo Garcilaso (6 last)

Deportivo Garcilaso1-0FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso1-1FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar1-2Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar1-1Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso1-3FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso2-2FBC Melgar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FBC Melgar 1523 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1558

	FBC Melgar	Draw	Deportivo Garcilaso
Our model	57%	27%	16%
Market	58%	24%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Garcilaso: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FBC Melgar	Deportivo Garcilaso
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.1	2.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.80

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.57▼	Pinn 1.63 ★
X	3.60 → 3.80▲	Pinn 3.81
2	4.33 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:06 +39’	1.73	3.60	4.33
21:05 +36’	1.61▼	3.75▲	5.00▲
22:22 +4’	1.57▼	3.80▲	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:25 +17’	1.63	3.81	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FBC Melgar 1–3–2 Deportivo Garcilaso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	1-0 HT 0-0	FBC Melgar
19/09/25 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	1-1 HT 1-0	FBC Melgar
18/04/25 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-2 HT 1-0	Deportivo Garcilaso
03/11/24 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Garcilaso
25/05/24 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	1-3 HT 0-0	FBC Melgar
02/07/23 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	2-2 HT 1-2	FBC Melgar

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	27	16	8	3	44	18	56
2	Universitario de Deportes	28	14	8	6	45	33	50
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	28	14	6	8	39	25	48
4	FBC Melgar	28	13	8	7	47	31	47
5	Cusco FC	27	14	3	10	40	38	45
6	Cienciano	28	13	5	10	48	40	44
7	CD Los Chankas	28	12	7	9	36	45	43
8	Alianza Atletico	27	11	7	9	40	35	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	11	5	11	48	40	38
10	Sport Huancayo	28	11	5	12	38	44	38
11	Juan Pablo II College	28	9	8	11	43	53	35
12	Sport Boys	27	10	8	9	29	26	34
13	Atletico Grau	28	9	6	13	26	31	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	7	10	11	36	39	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	7	7	14	41	52	26
16	AD Tarma	28	6	8	14	29	42	25
17	Deportivo Moquegua	28	6	7	15	24	43	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	4	8	15	32	50	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FBC Melgar	Deportivo Garcilaso
Universitario de Deportes	2-2 D	4-0 W
Sport Boys	1-1 D	0-1 L
Cusco FC	1-0 W	4-1 W
AD Tarma	3-0 W	1-0 W
Atletico Grau	0-1 L	4-2 W
Alianza Lima	1-1 D	1-0 W
FC Cajamarca	2-4 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Moquegua	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Garcilaso (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FBC Melgar

WDLWDLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
12/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
07/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
01/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
09/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-4	10	8	L
02/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
26/07	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	5	4	W

Deportivo Garcilaso

WWWDWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
20/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
13/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
06/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-2	12	6	W
30/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
23/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
17/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
09/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
02/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
27/07	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FBC Melgar win (58%). Probabilities: FBC Melgar 58%, draw 26%, Deportivo Garcilaso 17%.

How many goals are expected in FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

The model expects 2.33 goals (FBC Melgar 1.6 · Deportivo Garcilaso 0.73), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.