Football · Peru Liga 1 · 18/10, 22:30
Prediction: Alianza Atletico vs Universitario de Deportes
Team pages: Alianza Atletico · Universitario de Deportes
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.31Total
Alianza Atletico1.52
Universitario de Deportes1.79
1X2
Alianza Atletico
Draw
Universitario de Deportes
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Alianza Atletico
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Universitario de Deportes
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alianza Atletico
2–4
Universitario de Deportes
(6 last)
- Universitario de Deportes1-2Alianza Atletico
- Alianza Atletico0-2Universitario de Deportes
- Universitario de Deportes0-1Alianza Atletico
- Alianza Atletico0-3Universitario de Deportes
- Universitario de Deportes1-0Alianza Atletico
- Universitario de Deportes2-0Alianza Atletico
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alianza Atletico 1581 · Universitario de Deportes 1525
| Alianza Atletico | Draw | Universitario de Deportes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +1.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Atletico (rating 1581 vs 1525).
- H2H favours Universitario de Deportes: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alianza Atletico | Universitario de Deportes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.7 | 1.9 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.3 | 2.4 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.6 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Atletico 2–0–4 Universitario de Deportes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/26 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Alianza Atletico |
| 02/10/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Universitario de Deportes |
| 12/05/25 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Alianza Atletico |
| 15/09/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Universitario de Deportes |
| 06/04/24 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza Atletico |
| 04/07/23 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Alianza Atletico |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 29 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 49 | 20 | 62 |
| 2 | FBC Melgar | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 51 | 33 | 50 |
| 3 | Universitario de Deportes | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 33 | 50 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 29 | 48 |
| 5 | CD Los Chankas | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 46 | 46 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 29 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 42 | 45 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 40 | 44 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 36 | 43 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 49 | 40 | 41 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 45 | 41 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II College | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 53 | 38 |
| 12 | Sport Boys | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 31 | 34 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 34 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 52 | 26 |
| 16 | AD Tarma | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 44 | 25 |
| 17 | Deportivo Moquegua | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 43 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 32 | 51 | 10 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alianza Atletico | Universitario de Deportes |
|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes Unidos | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| UTC Cajamarca | 3-2 W | 4-2 W |
| Sporting Cristal | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Cienciano | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Alianza Lima | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| CD Los Chankas | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Cusco FC | 1-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Universitario de Deportes (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alianza Atletico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/08 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 06/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/07 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
Universitario de Deportes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 4-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 24/08 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 03/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alianza Atletico vs Universitario de Deportes?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Universitario de Deportes win (42%). Probabilities: Alianza Atletico 31%, draw 27%, Universitario de Deportes 42%.
How many goals are expected in Alianza Atletico vs Universitario de Deportes?
The model expects 3.31 goals (Alianza Atletico 1.52 · Universitario de Deportes 1.79), with a 62% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Alianza Atletico vs Universitario de Deportes?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.