Football · Peru Liga 1 · 18/10, 20:15

Prediction: FC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Moquegua

Team pages: FC Cajamarca · Deportivo Moquegua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

FC Cajamarca1.8

Deportivo Moquegua1

1X2

55% 26% 20%

FC Cajamarca Draw Deportivo Moquegua

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cajamarca 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLWLD

Deportivo Moquegua 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLDWLLLLL

Head-to-head

FC Cajamarca 2–3 Deportivo Moquegua (5 last)

Deportivo Moquegua2-1FC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca2-0Deportivo Moquegua
Deportivo Moquegua2-1FC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca2-1Deportivo Moquegua
Deportivo Moquegua2-0FC Cajamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cajamarca 1458 · Deportivo Moquegua 1427

	FC Cajamarca	Draw	Deportivo Moquegua
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	55%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Moquegua: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cajamarca	Deportivo Moquegua
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	0.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.3	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.2	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.70▼	Bet365 1.70
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.76 ★
2	4.10 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +11’	1.80	3.60	4.10
15:40 +17’	1.65▼	3.75▲	4.75▲
08:09 +3’	1.70▲	3.60▼	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:26 +124’	1.67	3.85	4.55
07:10 +2’	1.68▲	3.83▼	4.54▼
07:21 +51’	1.68▲	3.77▼	4.54
10:47 +37’	1.69▲	3.76▼	4.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cajamarca 2–0–3 Deportivo Moquegua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Moquegua	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Cajamarca
02/11/25 Peru Liga 2	FC Cajamarca	2-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo Moquegua
26/10/25 Peru Liga 2	Deportivo Moquegua	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Cajamarca
06/09/25 Peru Liga 2	FC Cajamarca	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Moquegua
02/08/25 Peru Liga 2	Deportivo Moquegua	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49	20	62
2	FBC Melgar	29	14	8	7	51	33	50
3	Universitario de Deportes	28	14	8	6	45	33	50
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41	29	48
5	CD Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38	46	46
6	Cusco FC	29	14	3	12	42	42	45
7	Cienciano	28	13	5	10	48	40	44
8	Alianza Atletico	28	12	7	9	43	36	43
9	Sporting Cristal	28	12	5	11	49	40	41
10	Sport Huancayo	29	12	5	12	40	45	41
11	Juan Pablo II College	29	10	8	11	45	53	38
12	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30	31	34
13	Atletico Grau	29	9	6	14	27	34	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	7	10	11	36	39	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	7	7	14	41	52	26
16	AD Tarma	29	6	8	15	30	44	25
17	Deportivo Moquegua	28	6	7	15	24	43	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	28	4	8	16	32	51	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cajamarca	Deportivo Moquegua
Cusco FC	1-2 L	0-2 L
Cienciano	2-5 L	0-2 L
FBC Melgar	4-2 W	0-0 D
Sport Huancayo	0-2 L	2-0 W
Deportivo Garcilaso	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Cajamarca (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cajamarca

LLWLLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
19/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-5	4	2	L
28/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
09/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-2	4	8	W
01/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	1	6	L
27/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-2	3	3	L

Deportivo Moquegua

DDLDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
20/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-4	0	7	L
13/09	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	10	7	L
06/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
30/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
22/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
16/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
09/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
02/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
26/07	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Moquegua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cajamarca win (55%). Probabilities: FC Cajamarca 55%, draw 26%, Deportivo Moquegua 20%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Moquegua?

The model expects 2.8 goals (FC Cajamarca 1.8 · Deportivo Moquegua 1), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Moquegua?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.