Football · Peru Liga 1 · 28/10, 19:15

Prediction: FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca

Team pages: FC Cajamarca · UTC Cajamarca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

FC Cajamarca2.02

UTC Cajamarca1.12

1X2

57% 24% 19%

FC Cajamarca Draw UTC Cajamarca

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cajamarca 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLWLDL

UTC Cajamarca 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

FC Cajamarca 1–1 UTC Cajamarca (2 last)

UTC Cajamarca3-1FC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca1-2FC Cajamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cajamarca 1448 · UTC Cajamarca 1398

	FC Cajamarca	Draw	UTC Cajamarca
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Cajamarca (rating 1448 vs 1398).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cajamarca	UTC Cajamarca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.1	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.70

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.00 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:07	1.65	3.70	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:39 +28’	1.56	4.00	5.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cajamarca 1–0–1 UTC Cajamarca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	UTC Cajamarca	3-1 HT 1-0	FC Cajamarca
08/05/26 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49	20	62
2	Universitario de Deportes	30	16	8	6	52	34	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	15	8	7	53	34	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41	29	48
5	Cusco FC	30	15	3	12	45	43	48
6	Cienciano	30	14	5	11	50	43	47
7	CD Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38	46	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	13	5	12	54	45	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	13	5	12	44	46	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	12	7	11	45	44	43
11	Juan Pablo II College	30	10	8	12	45	56	38
12	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30	31	34
13	Comerciantes Unidos	30	8	10	12	41	44	34
14	Atletico Grau	30	9	7	14	28	35	34
15	Deportivo Moquegua	29	7	7	15	25	43	28
16	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	41	53	26
17	AD Tarma	30	6	9	15	31	45	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	4	8	18	33	54	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cajamarca	UTC Cajamarca
AD Tarma	0-0 D	1-1 D
Cienciano	2-5 L	0-1 L
Comerciantes Unidos	3-2 W	1-3 L
Universitario de Deportes	2-3 L	2-4 L
FBC Melgar	4-2 W	1-2 L
Sport Huancayo	0-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FC Cajamarca (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cajamarca

LWLLWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
10/10	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
19/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-5	4	2	L
28/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
09/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-2	4	8	W
01/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	1	6	L

UTC Cajamarca

DLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
19/10	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
11/10	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
20/09	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	1	6	L
11/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	3	11	L
04/09	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	2	6	L
29/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-4	3	6	L
22/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
16/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
08/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	7	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cajamarca win (57%). Probabilities: FC Cajamarca 57%, draw 24%, UTC Cajamarca 19%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca?

The model expects 3.13 goals (FC Cajamarca 2.02 · UTC Cajamarca 1.12), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.