Football · Peru Liga 1 · 07/11, 19:00

Prediction: AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal

Team pages: AD Tarma · Sporting Cristal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

AD Tarma1.17

Sporting Cristal1.8

1X2

24% 25% 51%

AD Tarma Draw Sporting Cristal

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Tarma 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWDLDW

Sporting Cristal 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

AD Tarma 2–4 Sporting Cristal (6 last)

Sporting Cristal5-0AD Tarma
AD Tarma0-1Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal2-1AD Tarma
AD Tarma3-2Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal2-1AD Tarma
AD Tarma3-1Sporting Cristal

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Cristal (rating 1432 vs 1581).
H2H favours Sporting Cristal: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Tarma	Sporting Cristal
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	2.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.8	3.4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.7	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.97

Under 2.751.83

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:09

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.32 → 2.46▲	Pinn 2.46
X	3.46 → 3.43▼	Pinn 3.43
2	2.85 → 2.69▼	Pinn 2.69

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:10 +23’	2.32	3.46	2.85
23:03 +6’	2.46▲	3.43▼	2.69▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Tarma 2–0–4 Sporting Cristal

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/10/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Sporting Cristal	5-0 HT 2-0	AD Tarma
27/09/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	AD Tarma	0-1 HT 0-1	Sporting Cristal
24/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	2-1 HT 0-1	AD Tarma
04/10/25 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	3-2 HT 1-2	Sporting Cristal
17/05/25 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	2-1 HT 1-1	AD Tarma
12/07/24 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	3-1 HT 1-1	Sporting Cristal

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	31	19	8	4	52	23	65
2	Universitario de Deportes	31	17	8	6	55	35	59
3	FBC Melgar	32	15	9	8	54	37	54
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	32	16	6	10	50	35	54
5	Cusco FC	32	16	3	13	46	44	51
6	Sporting Cristal	32	15	5	12	62	47	50
7	Cienciano	31	15	5	11	53	43	50
8	Alianza Atletico	32	14	7	11	49	46	49
9	Sport Huancayo	32	14	5	13	46	48	47
10	CD Los Chankas	32	13	8	11	39	51	47
11	Juan Pablo II College	32	11	8	13	47	57	41
12	Sport Boys	31	12	8	11	35	33	40
13	Comerciantes Unidos	31	8	11	12	42	45	35
14	Atletico Grau	32	9	7	16	29	41	34
15	AD Tarma	31	7	9	15	33	45	29
16	Deportivo Moquegua	32	7	8	17	25	46	29
17	FC Cajamarca	32	7	7	18	44	65	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	32	5	8	19	38	58	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Tarma	Sporting Cristal
Deportivo Moquegua	2-0 W	2-1 W
Atletico Grau	1-1 D	3-1 W
CD Los Chankas	1-2 L	5-0 W
FC Cajamarca	0-0 D	5-0 W
Alianza Lima	0-2 L	3-2 W
Alianza Atletico	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Cristal (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Tarma

DLLLLWDLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
23/10	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	4	10	D
16/10	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
10/10	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	9	8	D
23/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
19/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
07/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
30/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-3	1-3	9	10	L
22/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-5	6	0	L
15/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	15	9	D

Sporting Cristal

LLWWWWWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	5-0	5	7	W
29/10	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	2-2	3-2	4	6	W
24/10	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-3	12	3	L
18/10	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-2	5	1	W
11/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
19/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-1	9	6	W
13/09	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
06/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	5-0	9	4	W
30/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
21/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sporting Cristal win (51%). Probabilities: AD Tarma 24%, draw 25%, Sporting Cristal 51%.

How many goals are expected in AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal?

The model expects 2.98 goals (AD Tarma 1.17 · Sporting Cristal 1.8), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.