Football · Peru Liga 1 · 28/10, 21:30

Prediction: Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Team pages: Alianza Atletico · Deportivo Garcilaso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Alianza Atletico1.95

Deportivo Garcilaso1.07

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Alianza Atletico Draw Deportivo Garcilaso

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Atletico 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWWLL

Deportivo Garcilaso 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWLWLL

Head-to-head

Alianza Atletico 5–1 Deportivo Garcilaso (6 last)

Deportivo Garcilaso2-1Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico2-0Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso2-4Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico1-0Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso0-1Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico3-0Deportivo Garcilaso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Atletico 1551 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1536

	Alianza Atletico	Draw	Deportivo Garcilaso
Our model	57%	24%	19%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alianza Atletico: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Atletico	Deportivo Garcilaso
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.2	3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:02 +5’	1.65	3.60	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Atletico 5–0–1 Deportivo Garcilaso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	2-1 HT 1-0	Alianza Atletico
04/03/26 Copa Sudamericana	Alianza Atletico	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Garcilaso
06/10/25 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	2-4 HT 0-2	Alianza Atletico
16/05/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Garcilaso
10/08/24 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	0-1 HT 0-0	Alianza Atletico
29/02/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	3-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Garcilaso

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49	20	62
2	Universitario de Deportes	30	16	8	6	52	34	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	15	8	7	53	34	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41	29	48
5	Cusco FC	30	15	3	12	45	43	48
6	Cienciano	30	14	5	11	50	43	47
7	CD Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38	46	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	13	5	12	54	45	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	13	5	12	44	46	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	12	7	11	45	44	43
11	Juan Pablo II College	30	10	8	12	45	56	38
12	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30	31	34
13	Comerciantes Unidos	30	8	10	12	41	44	34
14	Atletico Grau	30	9	7	14	28	35	34
15	Deportivo Moquegua	29	7	7	15	25	43	28
16	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	41	53	26
17	AD Tarma	30	6	9	15	31	45	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	4	8	18	33	54	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Atletico	Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Huancayo	1-4 L	0-1 L
Universitario de Deportes	1-4 L	4-0 W
Sport Boys	3-1 W	0-1 L
Atletico Grau	1-3 L	4-2 W
Deportivo Moquegua	4-1 W	2-0 W
AD Tarma	1-1 D	1-0 W
Cienciano	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Garcilaso (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Atletico

WDWWWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-4	1-4	5	2	L
18/10	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-3	1-4	9	5	L
11/10	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	2	9	W
18/09	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	10	4	W
13/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
04/09	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	5	6	W
30/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-1	4	5	W
21/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
15/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
06/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	6	W

Deportivo Garcilaso

WWDWWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-4	6	4	L
10/10	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
20/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
13/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
06/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-2	12	6	W
30/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
23/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
17/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
09/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
02/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Atletico win (56%). Probabilities: Alianza Atletico 56%, draw 25%, Deportivo Garcilaso 19%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Alianza Atletico 1.95 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1.07), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.