Football · Peru Liga 1 · 07/11, 21:30

Prediction: FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico

Team pages: FC Cajamarca · Alianza Atletico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

FC Cajamarca1.47

Alianza Atletico2.08

1X2

26% 23% 51%

FC Cajamarca Draw Alianza Atletico

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cajamarca 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLDLLL

Alianza Atletico 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWLLWW

Head-to-head

FC Cajamarca 0–1–0 Alianza Atletico (1 last)

Alianza Atletico1-1FC Cajamarca

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Atletico (rating 1417 vs 1564).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cajamarca	Alianza Atletico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.4	2.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.4	3.1 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.96

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:22

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.42 → 2.42	Pinn 2.42
X	3.37 → 3.37	Pinn 3.37
2	2.77 → 2.77	Pinn 2.77

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:05 +17’	2.42	3.37	2.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cajamarca 0–1–0 Alianza Atletico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	31	19	8	4	52	23	65
2	Universitario de Deportes	31	17	8	6	55	35	59
3	FBC Melgar	32	15	9	8	54	37	54
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	32	16	6	10	50	35	54
5	Cusco FC	32	16	3	13	46	44	51
6	Cienciano	31	15	5	11	53	43	50
7	Alianza Atletico	32	14	7	11	49	46	49
8	Sporting Cristal	31	14	5	12	57	47	47
9	Sport Huancayo	32	14	5	13	46	48	47
10	CD Los Chankas	32	13	8	11	39	51	47
11	Juan Pablo II College	32	11	8	13	47	57	41
12	Sport Boys	31	12	8	11	35	33	40
13	Comerciantes Unidos	31	8	11	12	42	45	35
14	Atletico Grau	32	9	7	16	29	41	34
15	AD Tarma	31	7	9	15	33	45	29
16	Deportivo Moquegua	32	7	8	17	25	46	29
17	FC Cajamarca	31	7	7	17	44	60	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	32	5	8	19	38	58	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cajamarca	Alianza Atletico
UTC Cajamarca	1-3 L	3-2 W
Sport Boys	2-4 L	3-1 W
Deportivo Moquegua	0-1 L	4-1 W
Comerciantes Unidos	3-2 W	2-1 W
Atletico Grau	1-3 L	1-3 L
Universitario de Deportes	2-3 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza Atletico (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cajamarca

LLWLWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
25/10	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-4	3	2	L
18/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
10/10	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
19/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-5	4	2	L
28/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	6	7	L

Alianza Atletico

WWWLWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
28/10	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	3-0	3-2	6	2	W
24/10	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-4	1-4	5	2	L
18/10	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-3	1-4	9	5	L
11/10	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	2	9	W
18/09	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	10	4	W
13/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
04/09	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	5	6	W
30/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-1	4	5	W
21/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alianza Atletico win (51%). Probabilities: FC Cajamarca 26%, draw 23%, Alianza Atletico 51%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico?

The model expects 3.55 goals (FC Cajamarca 1.47 · Alianza Atletico 2.08), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.