Football · Peru Liga 1 · 18/07, 20:15
Prediction: AD Tarma vs Universitario de Deportes
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.3Total
AD Tarma1.02
Universitario de Deportes1.29
1X2
AD Tarma
Draw
Universitario de Deportes
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
AD Tarma
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Universitario de Deportes
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AD Tarma
2–4
Universitario de Deportes
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AD Tarma 1509 · Universitario de Deportes 1522
| AD Tarma | Draw | Universitario de Deportes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| Market | 29% | 29% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Universitario de Deportes: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AD Tarma | Universitario de Deportes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.7 | 3 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.3 | 2.8 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Tarma 2–0–4 Universitario de Deportes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/26 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 2-0 HT 0-0 | AD Tarma |
| 26/10/25 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Universitario de Deportes |
| 21/06/25 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 5-0 HT 2-0 | AD Tarma |
| 20/10/24 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 2-1 HT 1-0 | AD Tarma |
| 03/05/24 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Universitario de Deportes |
| 16/08/23 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Universitario de Deportes |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario de Deportes | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | AD Tarma | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 13 | Deportivo Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 18 |
| 14 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 17 |
| 15 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 31 | 16 |
| 17 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 40 | 16 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 13 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AD Tarma | Universitario de Deportes |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Huancayo | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo Moquegua | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Atletico Grau | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AD Tarma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Cienciano Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 26/06 | Sport Huancayo Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 19/06 | Alianza Universidad Peru Copa de la Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/06 | Union Minas Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 27/04 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Universitario de Deportes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Millonarios America Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Atletico Grau Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 11 | D |
| 13/06 | Pirata FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 27/05 | Deportes Tolima Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 21/05 | Nacional De Football Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 12/05 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 08/05 | Coquimbo Unido Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AD Tarma vs Universitario de Deportes?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Universitario de Deportes win (42%). Probabilities: AD Tarma 29%, draw 30%, Universitario de Deportes 42%.
How many goals are expected in AD Tarma vs Universitario de Deportes?
The model expects 2.3 goals (AD Tarma 1.02 · Universitario de Deportes 1.29), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in AD Tarma vs Universitario de Deportes?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.