Football · Peru Liga 1 · 18/07, 03:00
Prediction: Cienciano vs FBC Melgar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
Cienciano1.5
FBC Melgar1.17
1X2
Cienciano
Draw
FBC Melgar
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cienciano
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
FBC Melgar
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cienciano
1–1–4
FBC Melgar
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cienciano 1526 · FBC Melgar 1551
| Cienciano | Draw | FBC Melgar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FBC Melgar: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cienciano | FBC Melgar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.6 | 2.1 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.6 | 4.6 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cienciano 1–1–4 FBC Melgar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 Copa Sudamericana | Cienciano | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FBC Melgar |
| 01/02/26 Peru Liga 1 | FBC Melgar | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Cienciano |
| 03/10/25 Peru Liga 1 | FBC Melgar | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Cienciano |
| 11/05/25 Peru Liga 1 | Cienciano | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FBC Melgar |
| 26/08/24 Peru Liga 1 | Cienciano | 3-1 HT 1-1 | FBC Melgar |
| 30/03/24 Peru Liga 1 | FBC Melgar | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Cienciano |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario de Deportes | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | AD Tarma | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 13 | Deportivo Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 18 |
| 14 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 17 |
| 15 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 31 | 16 |
| 17 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 40 | 16 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 13 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cienciano | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Sport Huancayo | 2-2 D | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cienciano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | AD Tarma Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 29/06 | Cusco FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/06 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 14/06 | Deportivo Binacional Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 01/06 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 22/05 | Atletico Mineiro Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
FBC Melgar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 10 | D |
| 12/06 | Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 28/04 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 20/04 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 15/04 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cienciano win (44%). Probabilities: Cienciano 44%, draw 28%, FBC Melgar 29%.
How many goals are expected in Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
The model expects 2.67 goals (Cienciano 1.5 · FBC Melgar 1.17), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.