Football · Peru Liga 1 · 19/07, 01:30
Prediction: Cusco FC vs Alianza Atletico
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
Cusco FC1.57
Alianza Atletico0.67
1X2
Cusco FC
Draw
Alianza Atletico
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Cusco FC
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Alianza Atletico
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cusco FC
3–1–2
Alianza Atletico
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cusco FC 1470 · Alianza Atletico 1531
| Cusco FC | Draw | Alianza Atletico | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 27% | 15% |
| Market | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Atletico (rating 1470 vs 1531).
- H2H favours Cusco FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cusco FC | Alianza Atletico | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.6 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.7 | 1.5 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cusco FC 3–1–2 Alianza Atletico
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cusco FC |
| 18/08/25 Peru Liga 1 | Cusco FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Alianza Atletico |
| 28/03/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 2-4 HT 2-3 | Cusco FC |
| 15/08/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Cusco FC |
| 07/03/24 Peru Liga 1 | Cusco FC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Alianza Atletico |
| 22/07/23 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Cusco FC |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario de Deportes | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | AD Tarma | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 13 | Deportivo Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 18 |
| 14 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 17 |
| 15 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 31 | 16 |
| 17 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 40 | 16 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 13 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cusco FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Cienciano Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 22/06 | Deportivo Binacional Peru Copa de la Liga |
2-2 | 3-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 15/06 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 27/05 | Flamengo Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 21/05 | Independiente Medellin Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 11/05 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 07/05 | Estudiantes LP Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
Alianza Atletico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Pirata FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 28/06 | Alianza Lima Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 22/05 | Macara Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 11/05 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cusco FC vs Alianza Atletico?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cusco FC win (59%). Probabilities: Cusco FC 59%, draw 26%, Alianza Atletico 15%.
How many goals are expected in Cusco FC vs Alianza Atletico?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Cusco FC 1.57 · Alianza Atletico 0.67), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Cusco FC vs Alianza Atletico?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.