Football · Peru Liga 1 · 18/07, 22:30
Prediction: Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
Atletico Grau1.57
UTC Cajamarca0.85
1X2
Atletico Grau
Draw
UTC Cajamarca
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Grau
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
UTC Cajamarca
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Grau
3–3
UTC Cajamarca
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Grau 1483 · UTC Cajamarca 1491
| Atletico Grau | Draw | UTC Cajamarca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Grau | UTC Cajamarca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.6 | 2.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.6 | 4.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Grau 3–0–3 UTC Cajamarca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/26 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico Grau |
| 19/10/25 Peru Liga 1 | Atletico Grau | 0-2 HT 0-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 13/06/25 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Grau |
| 30/09/24 Peru Liga 1 | Atletico Grau | 4-0 HT 1-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 27/04/24 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Atletico Grau |
| 15/09/23 Peru Liga 1 | Atletico Grau | 4-2 HT 1-1 | UTC Cajamarca |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario de Deportes | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | AD Tarma | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 13 | Deportivo Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 18 |
| 14 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 17 |
| 15 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 31 | 16 |
| 17 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 40 | 16 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 13 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Grau | UTC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|
| Cienciano | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Sporting Cristal | 4-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Grau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 27/06 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 11 | D |
| 22/06 | Pirata FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/05 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 22/04 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
UTC Cajamarca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | FC Cajamarca Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 15/06 | Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 31/05 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 08/05 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 04/05 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 15/04 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Grau win (53%). Probabilities: Atletico Grau 53%, draw 27%, UTC Cajamarca 19%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Atletico Grau 1.57 · UTC Cajamarca 0.85), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Grau vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.