Football · Peru Liga 1 · 17/07, 22:15
Prediction: Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
Sporting Cristal2.1
Deportivo Garcilaso0.69
1X2
Sporting Cristal
Draw
Deportivo Garcilaso
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Sporting Cristal
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Garcilaso
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sporting Cristal
5–1–0
Deportivo Garcilaso
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sporting Cristal 1499 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1525
| Sporting Cristal | Draw | Deportivo Garcilaso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| Market | 70% | 19% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sporting Cristal: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting Cristal | Deportivo Garcilaso | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.7 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.3 | 1.4 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.4 | 4.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Cristal 5–1–0 Deportivo Garcilaso
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Peru Liga 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sporting Cristal |
| 20/10/25 Peru Liga 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sporting Cristal |
| 15/06/25 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Garcilaso |
| 17/09/24 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Garcilaso |
| 16/04/24 Peru Liga 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2-3 HT 1-3 | Sporting Cristal |
| 13/08/23 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Deportivo Garcilaso |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario de Deportes | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | AD Tarma | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 13 | Deportivo Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 18 |
| 14 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 17 |
| 15 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 31 | 16 |
| 17 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 40 | 16 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 13 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting Cristal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Union Comercio Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 13/06 | Comerciantes FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | Cerro Porteno Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 9 | W |
| 21/05 | Junior Copa Libertadores |
1-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 10/05 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 06/05 | Palmeiras Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
Deportivo Garcilaso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Deportivo Binacional Peru Copa de la Liga |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/06 | Cienciano Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 11 | L |
| 15/06 | Cusco FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 11/05 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/04 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/04 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Cristal win (70%). Probabilities: Sporting Cristal 70%, draw 20%, Deportivo Garcilaso 10%.
How many goals are expected in Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Sporting Cristal 2.1 · Deportivo Garcilaso 0.69), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.