Football · Peru Liga 1 · 02/08, 22:30

Prediction: Deportivo Moquegua vs FBC Melgar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Deportivo Moquegua1.01

FBC Melgar1.29

1X2

28% 30% 42%

Deportivo Moquegua Draw FBC Melgar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Moquegua 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWDDDD

FBC Melgar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWLDWW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Moquegua 0–1–1 FBC Melgar (2 last)

FBC Melgar0-0Deportivo Moquegua
FBC Melgar4-0Deportivo Moquegua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Moquegua 1478 · FBC Melgar 1553

	Deportivo Moquegua	Draw	FBC Melgar
Our model	28%	31%	42%
Market	29%	29%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBC Melgar (rating 1478 vs 1553).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Moquegua	FBC Melgar
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.5	2.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.5	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 4.03 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.45
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +2’	3.25	3.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:24 +1’	3.94	3.38	1.82
02:21	4.03▲	3.45▲	1.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Moquegua 0–1–1 FBC Melgar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/06/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	FBC Melgar	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Moquegua
16/02/26 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	4-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo Moquegua

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	19	13	5	1	34	11	44
2	CD Los Chankas	19	11	4	4	27	24	37
3	Universitario de Deportes	19	10	5	4	28	17	35
4	FBC Melgar	19	10	4	5	34	22	34
5	Cienciano	19	10	3	6	35	27	33
6	Cusco FC	19	9	3	7	26	27	30
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	18	7	5	6	21	19	26
8	Alianza Atletico	19	6	6	7	24	23	24
9	Comerciantes Unidos	19	5	8	6	22	24	23
10	Sport Boys	19	6	5	8	17	20	23
11	Sporting Cristal	19	6	4	9	30	32	22
12	AD Tarma	19	5	5	9	23	25	20
13	Deportivo Moquegua	19	5	5	9	19	26	20
14	Juan Pablo II College	19	5	5	9	26	42	20
15	Atletico Grau	19	5	4	10	15	21	19
16	Sport Huancayo	19	5	4	10	24	33	19
17	FC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	25	30	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	19	4	7	8	22	29	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Moquegua	FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca	0-0 D	2-0 W
Comerciantes Unidos	2-2 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Garcilaso	0-0 D	0-1 L
Bentin Tacna Heroica	3-2 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Moquegua (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportivo Moquegua

LDLDLWDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
18/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
12/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
29/06	FBC Melgar Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	5	10	D
21/06	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga	2-2	3-2	2	5	W
29/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/05	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
17/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
09/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	8	D
03/05	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	0	4	L

FBC Melgar

LWDWDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
18/07	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
29/06	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	10	10	D
12/06	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga	1-2	2-3	8	5	L
31/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	5	4	W
22/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
16/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	5	7	W
10/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
04/05	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	11	3	W
28/04	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Moquegua vs FBC Melgar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FBC Melgar win (42%). Probabilities: Deportivo Moquegua 28%, draw 30%, FBC Melgar 42%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Moquegua vs FBC Melgar?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Deportivo Moquegua 1.01 · FBC Melgar 1.29), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Moquegua vs FBC Melgar?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.