Football · Peru Liga 1 · 02/08, 18:00

Prediction: Sporting Cristal vs Juan Pablo II College

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Sporting Cristal2.22

Juan Pablo II College0.52

1X2

76% 16% 7%

Sporting Cristal Draw Juan Pablo II College

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Cristal 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWDWDL

Juan Pablo II College 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLDDDW

Head-to-head

Sporting Cristal 2–1–0 Juan Pablo II College (3 last)

Juan Pablo II College0-2Sporting Cristal
Juan Pablo II College0-0Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal3-2Juan Pablo II College

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Cristal 1500 · Juan Pablo II College 1452

	Sporting Cristal	Draw	Juan Pablo II College
Our model	76%	18%	6%
Market	77%	15%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Cristal (rating 1500 vs 1452).
H2H favours Sporting Cristal: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Cristal	Juan Pablo II College
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	1.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.5	4.3 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.00

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.00

2 (+2)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Pinn 1.22
X	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.12 ★
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +1’	1.20	6.00	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:24	1.22	6.12	10.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Cristal 2–1–0 Juan Pablo II College

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Peru Liga 1	Juan Pablo II College	0-2 HT 0-1	Sporting Cristal
21/09/25 Peru Liga 1	Juan Pablo II College	0-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Cristal
28/04/25 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	3-2 HT 3-1	Juan Pablo II College

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	18	13	4	1	32	9	43
2	CD Los Chankas	19	11	4	4	27	24	37
3	Universitario de Deportes	19	10	5	4	28	17	35
4	FBC Melgar	19	10	4	5	34	22	34
5	Cienciano	19	10	3	6	35	27	33
6	Cusco FC	19	9	3	7	26	27	30
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	18	7	5	6	21	19	26
8	Alianza Atletico	19	6	6	7	24	23	24
9	Sport Boys	19	6	5	8	17	20	23
10	Sporting Cristal	19	6	4	9	30	32	22
11	Comerciantes Unidos	18	5	7	6	20	22	22
12	AD Tarma	19	5	5	9	23	25	20
13	Juan Pablo II College	19	5	5	9	26	42	20
14	Atletico Grau	19	5	4	10	15	21	19
15	Deportivo Moquegua	18	5	4	9	19	26	19
16	Sport Huancayo	19	5	4	10	24	33	19
17	FC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	25	30	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	22	29	13

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Cristal	Juan Pablo II College
FBC Melgar	1-2 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Garcilaso	1-0 W	1-4 L
Cienciano	2-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Juan Pablo II College (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sporting Cristal

WLLDWWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
23/07	Bragantino Copa Sudamericana	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
17/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
11/07	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-1	10	1	D
27/06	Union Comercio Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
21/06	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-1	7	8	W
13/06	Comerciantes FC Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/06	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
29/05	Cerro Porteno Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-2	1	6	L
24/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-1	12	9	W

Juan Pablo II College

DLLLDLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
17/07	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	4	9	D
27/06	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
20/06	Club Ada Jaen Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
30/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
22/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
16/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
10/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
03/05	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-3	1-4	0	7	L
26/04	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	3	11	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Cristal vs Juan Pablo II College?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Cristal win (76%). Probabilities: Sporting Cristal 76%, draw 16%, Juan Pablo II College 7%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Cristal vs Juan Pablo II College?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Sporting Cristal 2.22 · Juan Pablo II College 0.52), with a 58% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal vs Juan Pablo II College?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.