Football · Peru Liga 1 · 03/08, 01:30

Prediction: Cienciano vs Universitario de Deportes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Cienciano1.13

Universitario de Deportes1.08

1X2

36% 30% 34%

Cienciano Draw Universitario de Deportes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cienciano 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Universitario de Deportes 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cienciano 0–3–3 Universitario de Deportes (6 last)

Universitario de Deportes2-1Cienciano
Cienciano1-1Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes3-2Cienciano
Universitario de Deportes3-1Cienciano
Cienciano0-0Universitario de Deportes
Cienciano0-0Universitario de Deportes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cienciano 1478 · Universitario de Deportes 1547

	Cienciano	Draw	Universitario de Deportes
Our model	35%	32%	33%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Deportes (rating 1478 vs 1547).
H2H favours Universitario de Deportes: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cienciano	Universitario de Deportes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	0.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4	3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.8	2.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +3’	2.50	3.20	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cienciano 0–3–3 Universitario de Deportes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	2-1 HT 1-0	Cienciano
27/07/25 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	1-1 HT 0-0	Universitario de Deportes
16/02/25 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	3-2 HT 1-1	Cienciano
28/10/24 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	3-1 HT 3-0	Cienciano
30/06/24 Club Friendly List	Cienciano	0-0 HT 0-0	Universitario de Deportes
21/05/24 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	0-0 HT 0-0	Universitario de Deportes

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	18	13	4	1	32	9	43
2	CD Los Chankas	19	11	4	4	27	24	37
3	Universitario de Deportes	19	10	5	4	28	17	35
4	FBC Melgar	19	10	4	5	34	22	34
5	Cienciano	19	10	3	6	35	27	33
6	Cusco FC	19	9	3	7	26	27	30
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	18	7	5	6	21	19	26
8	Alianza Atletico	19	6	6	7	24	23	24
9	Sport Boys	19	6	5	8	17	20	23
10	Sporting Cristal	19	6	4	9	30	32	22
11	Comerciantes Unidos	18	5	7	6	20	22	22
12	AD Tarma	19	5	5	9	23	25	20
13	Juan Pablo II College	19	5	5	9	26	42	20
14	Atletico Grau	19	5	4	10	15	21	19
15	Deportivo Moquegua	18	5	4	9	19	26	19
16	Sport Huancayo	19	5	4	10	24	33	19
17	FC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	25	30	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	22	29	13

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cienciano	Universitario de Deportes
AD Tarma	2-3 L	2-1 W
Cusco FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Sport Huancayo	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Universitario de Deportes (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Cienciano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
23/07	Lanus Copa Sudamericana	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
18/07	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
10/07	AD Tarma Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	2-3	7	1	L
29/06	Cusco FC Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
22/06	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	2-1	4	11	W
14/06	Deportivo Binacional Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
01/06	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
28/05	Juventud De Las Piedras Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
24/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	3	3	D

Universitario de Deportes

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
18/07	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
11/07	Millonarios America Friendlies	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
27/06	Atletico Grau Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	1-1	8	11	D
13/06	Pirata FC Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-2	0	0	L
31/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	12	3	W
27/05	Deportes Tolima Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
23/05	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
21/05	Nacional De Football Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
16/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cienciano vs Universitario de Deportes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cienciano win (36%). Probabilities: Cienciano 36%, draw 30%, Universitario de Deportes 34%.

How many goals are expected in Cienciano vs Universitario de Deportes?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Cienciano 1.13 · Universitario de Deportes 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cienciano vs Universitario de Deportes?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.