Football · Peru Liga 1 · 02/08, 20:15

Prediction: AD Tarma vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

AD Tarma1.07

Deportivo Garcilaso0.94

1X2

38% 31% 31%

AD Tarma Draw Deportivo Garcilaso

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AD Tarma 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWLWLL

Deportivo Garcilaso 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDLWDL

Head-to-head

AD Tarma 0–3–3 Deportivo Garcilaso (6 last)

Deportivo Garcilaso1-0AD Tarma
Deportivo Garcilaso1-0AD Tarma
AD Tarma0-0Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso1-0AD Tarma
AD Tarma2-2Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso0-0AD Tarma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Tarma 1474 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1552

	AD Tarma	Draw	Deportivo Garcilaso
Our model	37%	33%	30%
Market	39%	29%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Garcilaso (rating 1474 vs 1552).
H2H favours Deportivo Garcilaso: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Tarma	Deportivo Garcilaso
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	1.3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +2’	2.40	3.20	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Tarma 0–3–3 Deportivo Garcilaso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	1-0 HT 1-0	AD Tarma
02/11/25 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	1-0 HT 0-0	AD Tarma
28/06/25 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Garcilaso
13/09/24 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	1-0 HT 1-0	AD Tarma
07/04/24 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	2-2 HT 0-2	Deportivo Garcilaso
06/03/24 Copa Sudamericana	Deportivo Garcilaso	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Tarma

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	18	13	4	1	32	9	43
2	CD Los Chankas	19	11	4	4	27	24	37
3	Universitario de Deportes	19	10	5	4	28	17	35
4	FBC Melgar	19	10	4	5	34	22	34
5	Cienciano	19	10	3	6	35	27	33
6	Cusco FC	19	9	3	7	26	27	30
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	18	7	5	6	21	19	26
8	Alianza Atletico	19	6	6	7	24	23	24
9	Sport Boys	19	6	5	8	17	20	23
10	Sporting Cristal	19	6	4	9	30	32	22
11	Comerciantes Unidos	18	5	7	6	20	22	22
12	AD Tarma	19	5	5	9	23	25	20
13	Juan Pablo II College	19	5	5	9	26	42	20
14	Atletico Grau	19	5	4	10	15	21	19
15	Deportivo Moquegua	18	5	4	9	19	26	19
16	Sport Huancayo	19	5	4	10	24	33	19
17	FC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	25	30	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	22	29	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Tarma	Deportivo Garcilaso
Cienciano	3-2 W	1-2 L
Cusco FC	1-2 L	0-0 D
Sporting Cristal	1-2 L	0-1 L
Comerciantes Unidos	2-0 W	0-0 D
Deportivo Moquegua	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AD Tarma (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AD Tarma

DWLLDWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
18/07	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
10/07	Cienciano Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	3-2	1	1	W
26/06	Sport Huancayo Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
19/06	Alianza Universidad Peru Copa de la Liga	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
12/06	Union Minas Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
30/05	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	12	5	L
24/05	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-2	0	9	L
17/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
09/05	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	0	8	D

Deportivo Garcilaso

WWWDWDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
12/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/06	Deportivo Binacional Peru Copa de la Liga	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
22/06	Cienciano Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	1-2	1	11	L
15/06	Cusco FC Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
30/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	0	4	W
25/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
17/05	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	1	7	W
11/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
04/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Tarma vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Tarma win (38%). Probabilities: AD Tarma 38%, draw 31%, Deportivo Garcilaso 31%.

How many goals are expected in AD Tarma vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

The model expects 2.01 goals (AD Tarma 1.07 · Deportivo Garcilaso 0.94), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Tarma vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.