Football · Peru Liga 1 · 02/08, 03:30

Prediction: Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Alianza Lima1.87

Alianza Atletico0.61

1X2

67% 22% 11%

Alianza Lima Draw Alianza Atletico

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Lima 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDDLLLWD

Alianza Atletico 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Alianza Lima 2–2–2 Alianza Atletico (6 last)

Alianza Lima1-2Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico0-0Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima1-1Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico3-1Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima2-0Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico0-2Alianza Lima

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Lima 1504 · Alianza Atletico 1524

	Alianza Lima	Draw	Alianza Atletico
Our model	67%	23%	10%
Market	68%	21%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Lima	Alianza Atletico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	1.3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.50

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.45 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +4’	1.36	4.50	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +1’	1.43	4.30	6.94
01:19	1.45▲	4.21▼	6.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima 2–2–2 Alianza Atletico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Alianza Lima	1-2 HT 0-1	Alianza Atletico
15/02/26 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
28/07/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	1-1 HT 0-0	Alianza Atletico
15/02/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	3-1 HT 0-1	Alianza Lima
21/07/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	2-0 HT 1-0	Alianza Atletico
04/02/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	0-2 HT 0-1	Alianza Lima

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	18	13	4	1	32	9	43
2	CD Los Chankas	19	11	4	4	27	24	37
3	Universitario de Deportes	19	10	5	4	28	17	35
4	FBC Melgar	19	10	4	5	34	22	34
5	Cienciano	19	10	3	6	35	27	33
6	Cusco FC	19	9	3	7	26	27	30
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	18	7	5	6	21	19	26
8	Alianza Atletico	19	6	6	7	24	23	24
9	Sport Boys	19	6	5	8	17	20	23
10	Sporting Cristal	19	6	4	9	30	32	22
11	Comerciantes Unidos	18	5	7	6	20	22	22
12	AD Tarma	19	5	5	9	23	25	20
13	Juan Pablo II College	19	5	5	9	26	42	20
14	Atletico Grau	19	5	4	10	15	21	19
15	Deportivo Moquegua	18	5	4	9	19	26	19
16	Sport Huancayo	19	5	4	10	24	33	19
17	FC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	25	30	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	22	29	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Lima	Alianza Atletico
Carlos Manucci	1-3 L	1-0 W
Cesar Vallejo	0-0 D	2-0 W
FC Cajamarca	1-1 D	1-1 D
CD Los Chankas	3-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza Atletico (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Alianza Lima

DWWDDLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
20/07	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
12/07	Deportivo Cali America Friendlies	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
28/06	Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
21/06	Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-3	9	5	L
14/06	Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
31/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	1	0	D
24/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
17/05	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
10/05	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	1	5	D

Alianza Atletico

DDLLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
19/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	2	2	L
10/07	Pirata FC Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
28/06	Alianza Lima Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
19/06	Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
13/06	Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
31/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	1	4	L
29/05	CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana	0-0	0-2	1	8	L
24/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
22/05	Macara Copa Sudamericana	0-0	0-0	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Lima win (67%). Probabilities: Alianza Lima 67%, draw 22%, Alianza Atletico 11%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Alianza Lima 1.87 · Alianza Atletico 0.61), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.