Football · Peru Liga 1 · 02/08, 01:00

Prediction: Cusco FC vs UTC Cajamarca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Cusco FC2.11

UTC Cajamarca0.75

1X2

68% 21% 11%

Cusco FC Draw UTC Cajamarca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Cusco FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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UTC Cajamarca 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cusco FC 2–2–2 UTC Cajamarca (6 last)

UTC Cajamarca1-0Cusco FC
UTC Cajamarca1-2Cusco FC
Cusco FC1-1UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca2-1Cusco FC
Cusco FC1-1UTC Cajamarca
Cusco FC2-1UTC Cajamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cusco FC 1476 · UTC Cajamarca 1478

	Cusco FC	Draw	UTC Cajamarca
Our model	68%	21%	11%
Market	68%	22%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cusco FC	UTC Cajamarca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.33

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Pinn 1.50 ★
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:34 +3’	1.38	4.33	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:26	1.50	4.06	5.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cusco FC 2–2–2 UTC Cajamarca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/26 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	1-0 HT 0-0	Cusco FC
04/08/25 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	1-2 HT 1-1	Cusco FC
01/03/25 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	1-1 HT 1-0	UTC Cajamarca
19/07/24 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	2-1 HT 1-0	Cusco FC
02/02/24 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	1-1 HT 0-0	UTC Cajamarca
26/06/23 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	2-1 HT 0-0	UTC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	18	13	4	1	32	9	43
2	CD Los Chankas	19	11	4	4	27	24	37
3	Universitario de Deportes	19	10	5	4	28	17	35
4	FBC Melgar	19	10	4	5	34	22	34
5	Cienciano	19	10	3	6	35	27	33
6	Cusco FC	19	9	3	7	26	27	30
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	18	7	5	6	21	19	26
8	Alianza Atletico	19	6	6	7	24	23	24
9	Sport Boys	19	6	5	8	17	20	23
10	Sporting Cristal	19	6	4	9	30	32	22
11	Comerciantes Unidos	18	5	7	6	20	22	22
12	AD Tarma	19	5	5	9	23	25	20
13	Juan Pablo II College	19	5	5	9	26	42	20
14	Atletico Grau	19	5	4	10	15	21	19
15	Deportivo Moquegua	18	5	4	9	19	26	19
16	Sport Huancayo	19	5	4	10	24	33	19
17	FC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	25	30	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	22	29	13

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cusco FC	UTC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso	0-0 D	0-2 L
Atletico Grau	1-0 W	1-3 L
Sport Boys	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cusco FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Cusco FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
19/07	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	8	2	W
29/06	Cienciano Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
22/06	Deportivo Binacional Peru Copa de la Liga	2-2	3-4	8	3	L
15/06	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
30/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	0	5	W
27/05	Flamengo Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-3	2	5	L
24/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
21/05	Independiente Medellin Copa Libertadores	0-1	2-3	9	4	L
17/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	8	L

UTC Cajamarca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/07	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
12/07	Club Ada Jaen Peru Copa de la Liga	3-1	4-1	4	3	W
26/06	FC Cajamarca Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	3-1	12	6	W
15/06	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-2	2	9	D
31/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
23/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
08/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
04/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cusco FC vs UTC Cajamarca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cusco FC win (68%). Probabilities: Cusco FC 68%, draw 21%, UTC Cajamarca 11%.

How many goals are expected in Cusco FC vs UTC Cajamarca?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Cusco FC 2.11 · UTC Cajamarca 0.75), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cusco FC vs UTC Cajamarca?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.